Incremental Accessibility Benefits and HOT Lane Subscription Choice

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the factors contributing to toll lane subscription choice using data from the MnPASS HOT lane system operated by the Minnesota Department of Transportation. A binomial logit model is estimated which predicts the likelihood that a household will have a subscription to the MnPASS system based on aggregate characteristics of the surrounding area. Variables in this model include demographic factors as well as an estimate of the incremental accessibility benefit provided by the MnPASS system. This benefit is estimated using detailed accessibility calculations. The model achieves a pseudo-r-squared value of 0.634, and analysis of the results suggest that incremental accessibility benefits play a statistically and practically significant role in determining how likely households are to hold a toll lane subscription.