INTERIM PROGRESS REPORTS
by
Richard G. Woods
Arthur M. Harkins
Office for Applied Social Science and the Future
Center for Urban and Regional Affairs
University of Minnesota
1972 March 9
CONTENTS
Introduction • • • • • • • • • • • • •••• OOOOO • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • .. • • • • • • • • • .0 • • • • • 0 6 • 1
Interim Progress Report - Delphi Research Study on Water
Resource Utilization ................... ..... . ..... 2...............
Interim Progress Report - Seminars in Alternative Futures ........... 3-6
Interim Progress Report - NSP Future Trends Program ... 7-80000.. ..... 0.0
Other Office Activities . 0000.0.0000.0........00 ..... 00.00006.00.000.00
Summing Up
•••
• • • • • 0 • • OOOOO • • • • • • • • • • • • • 0 • • • • • • • •
 • • • • • . • • 0 • • • • ***** • * • • 10
Introduction
This document presents a six-month compilation of 1971 activities
in the Office for Applied Social Science and the Future (CURA). For
expanded descriptions of certain Office activities, the first Appendix
to the document should be read.
These reports are intended to provide background material for
the request of this Office for partial CUBA funding during academic
year 1972-73.
The Office for Applied Social Science and the Future apparently
was the first socially focused activity of its kind on the American
campus, Since its inception, Case Western Reserve, the University of
Massachusetts, and the University of Southern California have begun
similar activities. The Office is well known in many U.S. research and
development centers concerned with alternative futures, and receives an
average of two employment requests a week from Ph.D. and near-Ph.D.
professionals in many fields.
t,
••••
Interim Progress Report - Delphi Research Study on Water Resource
Utilization
1. This project formally began on January 15, 1972. It is scheduled
for completion on September 30, 1972.
2. The initial objective of the project was to conduct a Delphi study
to determine the possible future utilization of America's water
resources with particular emphasis upon social determinants and to
structure a symposium based upon the Delphi results.
3. At this point, involvement of faculty and students has been as
follows: some University faculty have been included in the first-
round Delphi as participants; one student has been employed part-
in a clerical capacity.
4. The Institute for Water Resources, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
negotiated the contract and is the principal agency being served;
more than 100 public and private agencies are participating through
their representatives in the Delphi.
5. The agency principally being served is the Institute for Water
Resources, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The final report of the
study and the symposium will serve many others interested in
water resource utilization.
6. Fiscal support has come from the Institute for Water Resources,
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The amount of support is $15,000.
7. No.
8. As indicated above, the project will terminate on September 30,
1972. While no "spin-off" is anticipated, there may well be
a continuing relationship between the Institute and this Office.
9. At this point, first-round Delphi results are being analyzed.
It is too early to tell how the University and the wider community
have been affected and to cite "guiding principles or general
lessons".
10. The project's existence is known locally and nationally, and the
involvement of this Office is likewise known. It may be that this
will provide additional service and research "visibility" to the
University.
-3-
Interim Progress Report - Seminars in Alternative Futures (S.S. 3-991,
S.S. 3-992, and S.S. 3-993)
1. This project began Fall Quarter, 1971. It is scheduled for completion
at the end of Spring Quarter, 1972.
2. The initial objective of the project was to organize and focus faculty
interest around the cross-disciplinary subject "Alternative Futures".
3. Involvement of faculty, by departments, has been as follows:
Fall Quarter, 1971
Professor John S. Hoyt, Jr.
Agricultural and Applied Economics
Professor Wilbur Maki
Agricultural and Applied Economics
Professor Mulford Q. Sibley
Political Science
Professor Walter K. Vivrett
Architecture
Professor Samuel Popper
Educational Administration
Richard G. Woods
Instructor, CUBA
Professor Arthur M. Harkins
Education and Sociology
Professor Perry L. Blackshear, Jr.
Mechanical Engineering
Winter Quarter, 1972
Professor Dean Abrahamson
Anatomy
Professor Perry L. Blackshear, Jr.
Mechanical Engineering
Professor Fred Norman
Public Affairs
Professor Arthur M. Harkins
Education and Sociology
Professor Frank Wilderson
Education
Professor Gerhard Neubeck
Family Studies
Professor Walter Vivrett
Architecture
Spring Quarter, 1972
Professor Robert J. Holloway
Marketing and Business Law
Professor Robert H. Beck
History and Philosophy of Education
Professor John Brantner
Clinical Psychology
Professor Paul Pederson
Education
Professor John E. Anderson
Mechanical Engineering
Professor Samuel H. Popper
Educational Administration
Professor Roger D. Clemence
Architecture
Professor Daniel L. Gerlough
Civil and Mining Engineering
Twenty-five to thirty students have been involved each quarter.
_5...
4. Involvement of non-University persons, as faculty or students,
has been as follows:
Fall Quarter, 1971
Warren P. Eustis
General Counsel
Upper Midwest Research and Development Council
William Ward
Professor of Education
Macalester College
Douglas Dayton
Earl Joseph
UNIVAC Corporation
Ralph Thrane
Director of Planning
Green Giant Company
Winter Quarter, 1972
Donald Imsland
Environmental Consultant
Northern States Power Company
Earl Joseph
UNIVAC Corporation
Dickinson Wiltz
Corporate Vice President
Dayton-Hudson Corporation
Douglas Dayton
Victor Berthene
Consulting Engineer
§pring Quarter, 1972
Daniel Ferber
Vice President for Academic Administration
Gustavus Adolphus College
Donald Ins m land
Environmental Consultant
Northern States Power Company
Earl Joseph
UNIVAC Corporation
5. Faculty and students at the University
6. No
7. No.
8. No.
9. Interest in the subject remains high. Involvement of non-University
personnel as students and faculty is perceived by them as an
advantage. Interaction between faculty and community persons interested
in alternative futures has been facilitated. The Seminars will be
expanded and continued next year. Although successful, the Seminars
suggest that a major impediment to the discussion of alternative
futures remains that of terminology and epistemology between different
disciplines and between faculty and community participants.
10. The Seminars indicate that it is possible for faculty to interact in
an ordinary seminar setting with non-faculty from the community.
.11
Interim Progress Report_ NSP Future Trends  Program
1. This project formally began on October 79 1971 (after extensive planning
during the summer of 1971). It is scheduled for completion on June 8,
1972, and, in all likelihood, will be extended in modified form for
those presently attending and re-structured for new learners.
2. To expose a range of NSP executives (thirty-four in number) to future
trends in society with a view toward increasing their social consciousness
and toward improving their planning capabilities. To experiment with
new ways of conducting on-the-job, comprehensive adult education.
3. One class of "Societies of the Future" (S.S. 3-981) and one class of
"School and Society (H.Ed. 3-090) have held:joint meetings with those
in the NSP Future Trends Program. Faculty who have appeared before
the NSP group as lecturers include:
Professor Arthur M. Harkins
Professor Gerhard Neubeck
Professor Lois Fiedler
Richard G. Woods
College of Education
Department of Psychology
College of Education
Instructor, CURA
4. The principal private agency involved has been Northern States Power
Company. Participating in the Program as speakers have been the
following representatives of public and private agencies:
Ian H. Wilson, Consultant, Business Environment Research and
Planning, General Electric Company, New York
Michael Marien, Research Fellow, Educational Policy Research
Center, Syracuse University Research Corporation, Syracuse, N.Y.
Edward S. Cornish, President, World Future Society, Washington, D.C.
Dr. Douglas Fenderson, Director, Office of Special Programs,
Bureau of Health Manpower Education, National Institutes of
Health, Bethesda, Maryland
Mr. Brendan O'Regan, Research Associate to R. Buckminster Fuller,
Carbondale, Illinois
Professor H. Wentworth Eldredge, Department of Sociology,
Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire
Professor Dennis Meadows, Sloan School of Management,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
05. Thirty-four NSP executives judged likely to have an impact upon the
future direction of Northern States Power Company.
6. The Program is entirely supported by NSP. Part of that support comes
in the form of purchased staff time ($3,000 for the period of this
report) from the Office for Applied Social Science and the Future.
Minor expenses incurred by the Office (such as telephone) are
reimbursed by NSP. The Majority of the budget for the Program is
administered by NSP.
7. Not at this point.
8. At this point, it is anticipated that the Future T ruudq, ProgLatu 
Nr1.11
continue next year. It may be repeated for new participants while
those participating in this year's efforts may have a new learning
structure created for them. It is expected that the Office will hav
e
a part in these new programs.
9. Evaluation is currently underway by NSP. Analysis of co
urse logs
suggests that there has been heightened awareness and interest
 on the
part of learners in future trends. There have been specific 
recommen-
dations for programmatic change at NSP, and currently we are 
involved
in meetings to translate these into action. News of the Progr
am has
spread among the business community locally and elsewhere and
considerable interest has been evidenced. There has been coop
eration
between the Office and the Steady State Earth Seminar at the U
niversity
in terms of engaging common speakers and purchasing books and 
materials.
It seems that there are opportunities for developing exciting 
and
flexible learning programs for adults in off-campus settings u
sing
a general Futures approach.
10. It appears that the Future Trends Program is regarded as a 
success
even though its formal evaluation is not yet completed. This
 must
be regarded as a "plus" for the University at a time when its
general image in the community (especially the business community)
is something less than desirable.
Other Office Activities 
This Office has engaged in several other developm
ental programs
and professional activities related to its central 
mission: provi-
sion of "a boost" to campus and community systems th
rough information
on Alternative futures.
1. Language Laboratory audio tape pool on altern
ative futures.
With the help of the University of Minnesota l
anguage lab
director in Folwell Hall, an audio tape pool on 
alternative
futures is currently being compiled by Mr. Dean
 Strupp.
Mr. Strupp is an honors undergraduate who will gr
aduate
soon and enter American Studies work. Prof. Joel
 Goodman
(Architecture), the Northern States Power Company,
 and
members of this Office are contributing to the 
pool, which
will serve Future Studies CLA majots and many other st
udents
and faculty.
2. Professional society and related activities
.
Office personnel have participated in two recent
 American
Anthropological Society meetings (preconference vol
umes
forwarded with this report) and have published the
 first
three of a series of papers on alternative fu
tures (also
forwarded). Office personnel have written journal arti
cles
and a book chapter, and are currently negotiati
ng a con-
tract for a book on the future of wideband 
communications in
education. Speeches have been made at local 
colleges, and
at Oak Ridge, San Antonio, and Kansas City. EV
E (Environ-
mental Video Event) at the University of Minnesot
a has been
partially funded by this Office, and one me
mber will parti-
cipate .on the program.
3. College of Education activities. Many C
ollege of Education
faculty have expressed an interest in alterna
tive futures for
education (see Appendix II). Currently, meetin
gs are being
held to determine the specifics of faculty
-student interest
from project standpoints.
Summing Up
This document is best read as a practical, beginning treatment
of two emphases traditionally neglected in higher education: alter-
native social futures and applied social science. In its second
six months of operation, this Office will conduct further develop-
ments of existing and new projects designed to lay the groundwork
for full University and community involvement and cooperation in these
two areas. The likely theme of this joint work will be "Minnesota
2000."
INTERIM PROGRESS REPORTS
Appendix I
••
•
:„-
FINAL COPY
.111.11,0••••••••••••••
FUTDRIZING A MULTIVERSITY:
The University of Minnesota Experience
by
kethur Piarkinp
:chard Woods
oz.
Claim For Applied Social Science aad the Fumre
720 Wathiagton Avenue S.E.
Uaiwnit7 of annesota
HinnsapoIts, Hinaesota 55455
PT Vo 4•• • 0, . *-w,reA for e ".r • ,.. Edacdm.t.GLal Future6,„ 1 ead• ,23 • . •
• vez sataftmwarmarwoo,re ourcir ;Go. wmorx.ro....ar3"..airywyw,,
tftrwea Zieglerv Edo,
Jnienry 31, 1972
• •
-2..
Introduction
The Office for Applied Social Science and the Future, within the
Uttiveraity of Minnesota's Center for Urban and Regional Affairs, is a
mac.7 organization begun on July I, 1971e It is directed by Arthur Harkins;
Ass4stant FrIfessor of Education and Sociology, and by Richard Woods,
Inotructor in the Center for Ufban.and Regional Affairs.
The Office for Applied Social Science and the Future primarily exiats
to via to the growth of organizatiolls focusing upon alternative futuzes
within tha central part of the United States. Specifically, the Office ,
lo con,eirmed with the development. of graduate and-undergraduate courm
m alternative future5, and with the packaging of these courses into
degvee pregrams Tha Office ik3 concerned with the 'dads of resardh and
d'avaopment progrPna whicb. will fit campus interests, end which also will
ccgTIbute to the C:ormation a cottrses and programs on alternativa futureet
• .
•the Jc*t .s Ott a Xri ad With the tE! r face brpiten r4a.arptKi and
zomnuaity, opeaacally wIth'inrge corporations re-evaluatiagc their roles
in Americaa eocietye We consider aacyng our most important jet. activitiee,
the atIbliahroent of six undergraduate and graduate course& on alternative
famme at the Unival:sity oi Minnesota; the establishment of the Office
itoelf; and the sharpening of our own role definitions • through thefAl
.tetivitiles and through the working frameworks astebliehed by ,rant e with
(n.51@ids.ageacies.
Our moet interesting projects in 1972, besides the est,iblishwent of
raergreduste and weaduatG programs in alternative futures, arez cout.ract
woglx. on ths.wide-hand munity information system at Jonathan, Minnesota;
contract volet, with the UcS. Army Corps of Engineers on altorciative future
uaas of Water resom:ces; end a contract with the Northern States ?mar
CaTporation in aft et dye, sophiaticated management training-adult edu-
cation program on altemative futures for a select population of NSP
-1;it%so-mt'a. Tve Of4te pliblicationv are available in early 1972. Thity are
-3-
•
•
the American Anthropological Association Cultural Futurology Fe-Conference
Symposia volumes, prepared for the 197b and 1971 AAA symposia on this sub-
ject in San Diego and New York City, respectively. Additional Office
publications are forthcoming.
freadeluic Course Dmlapent
since the primary focus of the Office is to gather, evaluate and
dlcueoinate information concerning alternative human futures, curriculum
gnd degree development on the campus of the University of Minnesota have
been el major part of its initial efforts. The bulk of this curriculum .
47we1opment has taken' placethree Sectors of the University: Social
Science; Education; and the Office of Special Learning Opportunities
Ciugait of the new undergraduate Future Studies major), In Education, tiome
sms of ILEd. 3-090 (Scalool and Sci, iety) are being "re-tooled" to
(m0141P: alt.ez-vative eccini pozsibilides with empbacaa upon the role
toxv5 of fo.ture education tems ; R. Ed. 5-110 (Social S. cicnce and.
gyonriti Perspectives) is set up to provide a basic introductloa tosyntems
;analyaio and zccial ecience wathodologies and important theori, both
conceritad with education; H.Ed. 5-210/211/212 has been set: up ca5 a non-
pxorequisita eloquence of couvaes emphasizing education - related social
(Image actualitieti and poseibilities in different: "Uwe frames" (about
ono dacadeone to alreme decadce, and throe decades and beyond, respective-
Iy); end two intercultural education courses taught by A. Harkins Illame
bean 'geatructured to emphasize futurn possibilities a porn and non-44hite
pacipici in the United Statas, paying opecial attentiov to the crucial role
of educational eysteoz. In the Social Science Program, SS, 3-991 (Societics.
of thc Futum) has been set up and taqht several times by Office staff.
Thia cf.,t-il:esa emphasizes the growing science of futurology, and requires
Zaiw1F dawn:Aims, madin3 in a growing body at -literature. A new course,
ga yet unnamed, will ha implemented in the Sociii Science Program; with
the approval of the curriculum committee, to precede this lecture course.
r..7,79...111.1.1101ARN.D.G.
S.S. 3-991/992/993 (entitled Seminars in Alternative Futures) have been
inctituted, and have involved the services of approximately thirty faculty
and industrial exacutive8 during 1971-1972. It is anticipated that these
three seminars will have four sections each quarter during 1972-73, and will
bring an additional 145 faculty, industry officers, legislators and regents
together to discuss alternative futures. In addition to these courses
and seminars, the staff of the Office for Applied Social Science and the
Future, working closely with faculty members from several departments has
essisted in the development of:
1. A 14-c:redit "package" future education course for College of
Education oenioxs. This "package" stretches over an entire
aca4emicleek, and involves 67o -departments withlu the College
of Educatioa. The primary focus of the course is to develop a
tilturea ctIrricubatil emphasis in an inner-city Minaeapolin junior
o0..tool...
Apair of "ceol-automated" courses for Future StliAlie,s nAlorri
In liberal Arts Thee two ecurses will be cancezi.d with the
eultal hletery 0. futurology (including 1111.7.ch upon
Anthropoloacal literature), with futures methodologies.
3. A turea taim anaivm in the University of Minnesota language
laboratory. The tapes will be available to all students, both
uu&rgraduo.te and graduate, who are intereated in pursuing future
vtudien. Tepee are being acquired for this purpose. in 1972.
Liberal Arts MAlor In Future Studies
....rerec--cur.q.,* isecrauvarrxmow.tvim.
On 1-.172 Jgau,2ry 1, Ole College of Liberal Arts at the Univeraity of
ktinnweta ovilzmized advining assietaaca withbl.its Interdepartmeatal Major to
.0tudents who wiah te deveLop their najor in Future Studies. The students in
the deaigued) interdepartmental Major are served in thit Colleges
Office i for Spacial Learning Opportunities (OSLO).
Dtiring the summer of 1.971, personne1.of OSLO began a survey of course
egtAlogs to determine roughly what courses might be applicable to a proposed
•-5-
7uture Studies major. After these courses were isolated, faculty were
interviewed by telephone during the Fail quarter, of 1971 and asked whether
these or other courses of their courses would be suitable to a proposed
Vuture Studies major. The result of this effort was the formulation of
a draft brochure on Future Studies including many courses directly and
indirectly concerned with the examination of alternative futures. Hr.
Donald Myrvik, director of OSLO, later orchestrated the wsny identified
colsrsee into three tracks: 3ocial sciences; natural sciences; and the
temanitie and arta. Within each of these areas, a half dozen or more
faculty were identifi$td who agreed to become advisers to Future Studies
uajors and to give amlistance to these majors in the case of requ4Ists for
reeding coursgs or spacial acaJaac credit exper1f7nce. Also located are
lvaK a do:sen falulty outoide the Calese of Liberal Arts who were will-
•ut?, o cloilusel and provIde Gpeaal acadt-mie help to Future Studies.atudentc.
&late draft or the developing brochure for Future Studies ccatafts
pmcaao inforaultion ±sr potential majors:
in_JTITU STUDIES
ca:mdent may plan an int:el:departmental major with emphasis on Future
Stmdiew.La order to help students identify the possibilities and increa$3e
our familiarity with the courses related to such an emphasis, we listed all
c,oarees with a focus on the "future," "change," "prediction," etc. We them
.4id a brief survey of instructors to modify the list and idultify some of.
the faculty interest3
At present, it seems that feu classes are ztructured to deal di,reg:tly.
ith the future. Although a few inatructors definitely felt their clasaes
mhould mot be considered part of a Future Studies program, many believed
the course(s) they teach to be 'indirectly related," "depending on what
2mp1gais is • stressed throughout this curriculum.'
In addition to courses which Include a futures emphasis, those which
includa projects or papers might also take on a Future Studies perspec-
Uve if students choose to pursue such topics independently within the
conree. For Instance, a student taking Arch 3-093, Axchitectural.Deaign
ZI, might wish to experiment with the planning of new models. Or a am-
ant ip an savant:PA, sociology of the family course may wish to write a
• •
.4
•
paper dealing with the future of the family structure. Finally, a student
might enroll in a directed study in one of various departments to create
Lox' himself a course which provides the material or emphasis he requires.
The following list includes courses believed to be particularly appro-
priate Since the courses in any one department are few, each student would
4xpect to take both prerequisites and general courses in the discipline to
give him a deeper understanding of the concepts and methods used by scholars
in that
Future Studies
Social Sciences Cross-Discialavagam
A. The following courses would have the greatest value in helping a
ntudeint identify major concepts and methods that can opply to
plined study of alefuture: a
5-131/132/133 Sele4!,ted Problems (prereq #)
5-137/138 Planning (prereq #)
icon 3-351 Science„ Tachaclogy (prereq 3-102)
cl 1-090 School and Society (sections of Harkins ot Neitimn)
5-216 Applied Social Science and Education
5-211 Social Planning and Education
5-212 Education and Societies of the Future
Mil 5-720/730/740 Studise: Contemporary Philoaophers (prereq
3-003 o#)
Pol 5,4153 Political Theory and Utopias (premq 1-051 or 9 cv in
cot aci or k; offered alt yrs)
3Sci 3-981 Societies of the Future
3-991/992493 Seminar in Alternative Figuxes
5-101 Steady State Earth: Goals, Constraints
So.c.. 5-55/ World Population: Problems (prereq 1-001 or 1-003,
1-006 or• • • •
•
-7-
5-555 Population Theory (prereq 5-551 or #)
5-611 Planning
5-952 Youth in Modern Society
5-506 New Forms in the Family (not approved as of 1/13/72)
B. The following courses provide useful background for Future Studies,
though they themselves include little emphasis on the future:
.•
Anthro 5-146 Innovation: Higher Education (prereq 5-145 or 5-151 or 0
5-151 Cultural Change, Development (prereq 1-002)
..',Econ. 5-141 BuOness Cycles (prereq 3-102, 3-751 oz,ecwiv)
5-301 Economic Development (5-331; prereq 1-003 or equiv)
Geog 5-375/376 American Cities - Location, Geographic Design
(prereq
HUAI 5-11(1 Intercultural Education: Social Science and. Systems
rerepc,ctives
Us::: 5-371/372 Recent Intellectual History of the U.S.
Jour 5-721 Mass Media in a Dynamic Society (prereq 1-201 or 3-1.21
for Jour maj, # for others)
Phil 3-302 Moral Problems: Contemporary Society
Poi 5-662 Recent Political Thought (prereq 1-051 or 9 cr in
soc sci or #, jr or sr only)
5-667 Recent Empirical Thought (prereq 1-051 or #; offered
alt yrs)
Soc 5-201 Social Psychology (prereq i-001, or 1-005, oi
SSci 3-402 Ecology, Technology, Society
-8-
C4, A large number of additional courses will be included as prere-
vioites or as general preparation (often at the lxxx level).
D. Directed Study projects may be designed either in particular
departments (usually courses numbered 3-970) or as Interdepart-
mental Studies (ID 3-970). See. thefollowing inetructors:
Richard Antaud, Associate Professor, Philosophy
jean Borchert, Director, Center for Urban and Regional Affairs
Edward Coen, Professor of Economics
Dongld Gilimor, Professor of Journalism and Hass Communications
Ax4hun Razkius2 Director, Office for Applied Social Science and
the Futures Assistant Professor of Education and
Sociology
Wtils Hively, Professor of Psychology
Eceut Iskander, Associate Professor of Architecture
Eobext l'ortnedy, Assistant Profe3sor of Sociology
Poppcx:, Professor of. Education Administration
Mulford rlibkey, Praassor Political Science
0rdoi Professow of Agriculture and Education
Joha W dmsn9 Aseidtant Profesoor of Education
Richard Woo.d1,Instructor, Center for Urban and Ragiaaal Affairs,
Aatociate Director? Of Lice for Applied Social Science
old the Future
We have included examplcal from the draft broaxre perLaining to the
3mial Science track within the future Studies major In order to illustrate
th msourms availtWe to siuderits iuterested in social approachea to
eiteraativft futures. The natural sierice and humanities and arts tracts
zign aqually weal develcped, Thiv, aev major is the first of its kiad, to
our knowledge, in the United States, In February, 1972, an updated version
of the fedtura studies brodture was being prepared by Donald Myrvik.
Will Minnesota Devekm a Graduate Future Studies Caoabilityl
Early in 1972 staff members of the Office for Applied Social Science
and the Future, working with many interested faculty at the University
of Minnesota, were investigating the possibility of a graduate degree
prosram*in the Future Studies, to be offered by some d4partment or program
within the University structure. While the undergraduate major in. Future
Studies required very little initiation funding (the great bulk of courses
are offered ae a matter of routine by the various departments involved),
the graduate Future Studies Program will require some new funding for
"borrowed" faculty from other departments. These 'borrowed" faculty would
--' twa t be new in the fiserate of new faculti holding added positions, but would
WI "bought" for a portion of their tima from their (-fun departments in
order to offer graduate futures seminars, courses and counseling services.
GrOuate Fcture Studies immediately suggests quality controls—strict
cawi. E.',:ofesso:: U. 14rratworth Eldredge, a Dartmouth sociaogist, le com-
platin a new critique of largely undergraduate future coulms in, selected
colle&c. and universities. While the survey was begun prior to the (level-
_ opvent of Future Studies courses at Minnesota, EldrfAge earlier warned
asaiglzt intellectually faulty work, in the area:1
1. ghallow iatellectual roots. Eldradge found that persons eon-
ductin futures courses showed little awareness of mankind's
historttal and pre-historical atruggles.
2. Absencepf, Social penal. Aelgyib. Eldredge noted little in the
way of adequate treatment of social change theory, with the
exception of a few eociologista coureen,
• Ttpisi;emolulcal aLiEichedge drew the conclusion from
all the courses en which data were available that the epiatmo-
Inical izaderpinnivp for futures courses were very poorly
developed.
4. Faulf.a. or A2EllkIle teAthins. methods. Eldradv obviously felt
Banktny over "groovy" teaching methods by teachers for
• "hip" ntudents.
These criticisms provide useful warning signals to enyone planning
graduate courses or degree programs in-Future Studies. But since inveighing
against ain is insufficient by itself, what major ingredients might a
vidble Future Studies graduate program offer? Keeping in mind Eldredge's
wauings, let ua offer one scenario broadly suggestive of program content
'grid etyle.
The program offers the opportunity for graduate students
to inquire, through interdisciplinary analysis, into problems
of social epecialization end generalization with the time
frame uf thirty years and more into the future. Projections
md analyses of iong-range social and technological trends
elated to American culture are made. Students are asked to
read certain hasp:, materials on 1,on&-range trends in, the
development • of American and world society. Historical and
anthropological material are especially useful in this regard
.ftudents are asked to inquire into a variety of institu-
tIonal futures related to American society. They are asked to
road end hypotheiAze about the development of the eccaomy, dbout
the futur of democracy, the future of international conflits,
genaf:ic aaa ecological future, race relationc, the future
t-r, =raiz and so(qal beliefs, etc. A conutant focuti of t::;:x,
nram is the &evelopment of alternative social futurai
!lc uadereitood through multi-instituttanal analysIs. tudents
are asked to develop models for societies of the future and .
them to work these models 'backward into the present in order
t4 test their "fit" and to gain iwighta into actual develop- -
2exAt prospects. • Studeuts also are asked to investigan the
Accuracy of these predictions and some means by which the
pxgtions wight be altered.
The entire program stresses the application of interdisci-
plinary pnalyeAs to the problems of apecializatiou and generalization
of human maderatandina, with emphasis upon the ZI;tuve of formal and
informal social systems. The program provides students with oppor-
tuaitis to investiBate, discuss, debate and evaluate many aspects of
the znticipeted impacts of long-range social. treads (such as computer
.cvntrolid education systems, political, economic) social and moral
otructural changes etc). Instmction Btrecums the interaction
of the social scienceq, business; humanities and arts with basic
facet* of long-range social development. 4(3,71U:it of vigorous
and disciplined inquiry is promoted, with the intent that all of
the long-range alternatives pertaining to human societies remain
open tc examillation, end with assurances that each alternative is
given a fair hearing. Graduate students in the Future Studies
rcogram 7:outinely approach their work in three the frames - not
nimply a "futures" one.
A. at4
•
• To help them deal effectively dth these and many other
qttestions, graduate studemts in the Future Studies Program
are provided with ample counseling, in addition to department
courses and interdisciplinary seminars. The courses, counsel-
ing and seminars in each student's total program of study
are regarded as crucial for providing an opportunity to
compare and synthesize many important intellectual experiences;
for this reason, they are thorough and demanding.
In all of this work, Future Studies Program faculty and
graduate students are assisted by visits from knowledgeable
and even renowned of persons; two-way .amplified
telephone lectures and discussions bring distant scholars
and practitioners into the classroom; a tape bank of
futures materials is available in the language laboratory;
video tapes from the World Future Society are on call at
the Officie for Applied Social Science and the- 171.3r.ure;
certain "automated" courses are available with. printed
lectures and other materials and services, all routinely
upelated,
A section of one Future Studies Program setolnar is devoted
t4,:) an interdisciplinary analysis of alternative educaticnel
fu urea In addition to other resources, the followf;rag tariais
an setvi3 are routinely available to every s tuderiz, for this
naction of the mR;.minar:
• •
The Future of
711•40.1.14 111”.•WelfW.PRI•••••••
Bwks: 1970 Amirican Aathropological Association
Cultural Futurology Symposium: Pre-Con-
fareace Veluwa (available through the Office
for Applied Social Science and the Future)
rgaretMead, Culture. end Commitment
Reprinte:
itichael Marieu, The Basic Long-Term .
IfrAltiftthi. Trend .1.z Education " Too Futurist,9 •„, .„.„ • 2
Deceriber„ /970.
Michael Marien., "Beyond Creclentikallarit .The
'Put:um of Social Selection," Social Folict,
eptc ire* .14 riect ob r 1971.
Viithael Marion, "The Discovery and Decline
of the Ignorant Society„ 1965-1985," from .
ths book, Educational Planning in Perspective
(Marten).
•
-12-
•
Jahn Platt, "What We Must Do," Science
November, 1969.
Lectures:
Seminar professor (oral and mimeographed)
• Herold Shane (amplified conference telephone hookup)
Special Publications:
The First Foundation Journal, Fall, 1971.
Audio Tapes
George Leonard - Ecstasy in Education
4.5 Abraham Maskow - Self Actualization 4
Dr. Alvin Enrich - Future for Higher Education
lianry David - Ravolutionary Choices for Education
• Youth Looks at the Future (A discussiou with university
etudents in the Washington, D.C. area)
Video Tapes:
Smiected education program tapes from the 1971 First
Congress of the World Future Society3, Washington, D.C.
Nhother or not the University of Minnesota can mount a graduate program
in Future Studies within its structure is unknown to as early in 1972.
The plena:Lin which already has gone into a Future Studies graduate program
cm, however, be shifted to iraprovIrks the Future Studies undergraduate .
major in Llberal Arts. Early in 1972 fuads were being sought to support
a Future Studies graduate degree program should the decision be made to
Implement one.
• •
•••••••••••••••• •
••••••••• •
-13-
•••
•••
Tuturizing a Multiversity: Some Stratei.1922.
• Conventicnal planning and futures planning are often indistinguishable
.becaulse of normative constraints. At best, conventional planning and futures
planning are distinguished by fundamental epistemological differences. These
differences are expressed most often in the greater provision to futures
planners of alternatives that are reglax alternatives and not simply varia-
tions around largely inflexible "givens". The best approach to futurizing
A university or college suggests an open planning process, involving all
inteinested or potentially interested persons and groups. The open process
also communicates al/ planning information, strategies, tactics, etc., to
the outside cdmmuatty for addieiofial feedback. aroice of the mix battfeen
professional futurists and others is mediated by the conditions of the
yaricus states of the art involved, the nature of the world views of
thcse invcived, the constraints of particular situations, and the feedback
potentaally affected persons inside or outside the college or ttniversity.
Appmndhing the future on an entirely ad hoc basis, an entirely wrmative
basis , or an entirely elttrapolative basis seems inadequate in eadh case.
The Office for Applied Social Science and the Future thiuks of "power"
ea the development, maintenance, and utilization of wide-ranging funciont31
Alternatives within any particular set of constraints. A key element in
this definition of power becomes the actual ability to exercise fleNibilities
that are intimately related to the range of available armdhair alteraatives.
Iv. order to prevent this process from becoming uncontrolled, ingrown, or
potentially harmful to the university or college cowmunity, persolanel of
this Office feel that completely open feedback of collegiate futures
pign#ng incide and outside the institution is fundamentally necessary.
Thus, any tateznal or external interest mdy attempt to constrain any
limactical emrcisa by collegiate futurists of "power" as we have defined
it here. Open planning and fcedbadk processes will, believe, constrain the
ovax-zealous, particularly where "empire-building" or bureaucratic nuclea-
tioa are iavaved.
••
••
1
•••
-14-
VuturiABLE.212111.1mmit-r: Some Tactical Considerations
Specifically we wiggest the following grassroots approaches for
.futures activists within higher education ins titu4ons:
1. Show people the Futurist. Many have not seen it before, and
there are few who are not delighted with it after a few moments
of examination. Help them subscribe before other matters
capture their attention.
2. Institutional memberships in the World Future Society are
Invaluable, practically and symbolically. In Minnesota, the
Twin Cities alone has at least a half dozen institutional
memberships in the World Future Society, .ipiAi more are on the way.
The diffice for Am)lied' Social Science and th Future has been 'an
Zustitutional '!ember for more than one year, and it: is expected
that the University of Minnesota Board of Regents and the.
Univeraity of MInneoota Foreiga Student Association will
become Li:ethers in February or march, 1972.
3c Avoid talk of hiring new faculty. With the higher education
'&,1dgetav pessimism so prevalent in 1972, it is far beter
extstiag faculty and to discover futurized. faculty
the rani:a. This enables the creation of an "iaAsible
college of future orThnted faculty, who may begin discions
e4 to how their mutual interests might be expressed.
4. .Interdiecipliaary seminurs on alternative futures are laveludble
for briagiug together diverse community and faculty interests.
The University of Minnesota began with three such seminars in
1971-72; it expects to have between nine and twelve such seminars
in 1972-73.
J Keep the academic quality of futures courses and semin•ars above
vepvoach. othin, as H. Weutvorth Eldredge has voted, is more
demsstating to the serious study of alternative futues than
"bluR sky" courses and shallow, undisciplined academic "activity".
In this regard, :11 reading of the Eldredge article cited in this
ehapter may be helpful.
6. Involve off
-campus persons with reputations for vigordus,
competent futurist: activities. By this, we mean industry
officers, legislators, regents, trustees, politicians, bureau-
crats, coneulting professionals, community leaders and others
wtose activities fall within a very broad definition of "futurist,"
oux. eopetational definition of a futurist dGs simple and incluota: a com7-
patent: parsoa who looks &Lead to alternative futures of por-zible importance
-15-
to human welfare, Such persons will comprise 50 per cent of
all "faculty" giving papers within the University of Minnesota
seminars on alternative futures in 1972-71)
7. Give papers at national professional society meetings-. In the
last year and four months, personnel from the Office for Applied
Social Sciences and the Future have read papers at an American
Anthropological Association symposium on cultural futures, and
will read papers at five more major national social science
meetings within the next fourteen months. Properly handled,
these activities can go a long way towards acquainting faculty
all over the country with futures emphases developing within
particular disciplines.
8. Exercise public caution using the label, "futurist", Moat "futurists"
aro still disciplinarians in acme major degree. This point may.
seem trivial, but we have seen many occa0ons where cultish
labeling has resulted in much lose than the 1/1anned-for reactions.
SomP Concladins....:_kekriowiedlements
ad, we .worrwer..A...9.....r.40......
VITtually none of the futures courses and seminars at 6.e, advf2rsity
of Mintyae3ota would bc po53ible without the donation of time arid
resources by faculty from ceveral arwi, colleges and universities, Industry
officers also have been invaluable an paper-giving seminar "faculty" and
very useful as sources of practical advice. The UNIVAC Corporation,
the Dayton-Hudson Corporation, and the Northern States Foyer Company have
provided muth-needed assistance without "strings". Earl C. Joseph,'IGNIVAC
staff Sciantiet and Visiting Lecturer in Social Science helped to design
Rrd teach SFIci 3-981 (Societies of the Future), our first bona fide futures
.1.Actura course. Donald 0 Imslaad, Environmental Consultant to the
HoTthern 3tate2 Power Company, has loaned valuable tapes, films and other
.materials to Minnesota futures classes without charge. Douglas Dayton, a
.maSor stockholder in the Dayton-Hudson Corporation, helped bring the pro-
wined graauate program in Future Studies a st4 closer by his generosity.
Ed Cornish, 'president of the World Future Society, seems never to have
and of our callf.A for aosistance, and the pedagogical advice of Prof, H.
• •
• .
-17-
FOOTNOTiS
L. Eldredge, H. Wentworth, Technolooical FortatUu and Social
ShAsEt, 2 (1970), 133-148.
.•
go.
INTERIM PROGRESS REPORTS
Appendix II
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-43191 -
Interim Progress Reports.
Woods, Harkins.
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