• • ' Marginally Restricted D-optimal Designs by R. Dennis Cook and L.A. Thibodeau Technical Report No. 331 Department of Applied Statistics University of Minnesota Saint Paul, Minnesota 55108 November 1, 1978 This work was supported in part by Grant #l-R01-GM25587-0l from the National Insti- tute of General Medical Science. ' Abstract In experimental design it often happens that some of the relevant carriers cannot be specified by the experimenter. We consider the problem of obtaining approximate D-optimal designs when the design space is a product space and the carriers associated with one margin are not subject to control. An equivalence theorem for D-optimal designs is presented. The essential ingredients of iterative schemes for generating designs are discussed. :--, ' '• 1. Introduction In classical optimal design for regression models it is usually assumed that all relevant carriers (independent variables) can be controlled completely throughout the design space, (see, for example, Fedorov, 1972). However, in many areas of application it is common to find that some of the known carriers are not subject to control. This often happens when the experiment consists of applying levels of a "treatment" to experimental units which differ on known relevant quantitative variables. In this case the values of the carriers associated with the experimental units are restricted by the availability of the units. Harville (1974, 1975) discusses the problem of obtaining nearly optimal allocation of experimental units for analysis of covariance models. He presents algorithms which result in nearly D-optimal exact designs for inferences about the treatment effects in additive covariance models and discusses extensions to nonadditive models. Here,we consider the problem of obtaining D-optimal designs for regression models when the values of some of the carriers are restricted and not subject to control by design. We first present the general formulation and some relevant background information. Let f'(x) • (£1 , ••• ,f) denote a vector of p linearly independent - p continuous functions on some compact space X. An experiment consists of selecting an x in x and observing a random variable y(x) with regression function E(ylx) a!'! and constant variance a2 • We assume that the fi are known while the parameter vector ! is unknown. If ; is a probability measure on X then ~ defines an experimental design. 1 2 Exact designs concentrate mass ;(x1) at points xi, i~l,2, ••• ,r, subject to the restriction that N((x1) • n1 is integral for all i. An exact design specifies that the experimenter is to take N uncorrelated observations, n1 at xi. The resulting covariance matrix of the least squares estimate of ! is of the form where the information matrix, ~(t), is M(f;) • f .f .f' df; X Approximate designs are not constrained by the requirement that ni be integral for all i. Here we consider only approximate designs. The choice of a design is often based on the minimization of some functional of the information matrix, M(;). Perhaps the two most commonly employed functionals are and (i) -1 determinant M (;) • (11) max d(x;E:) X€; where -1 d(x;;) ::r !:...' (x)M (~)f(x). Designs minimizing these functionals are called D and G-optimal designs, respectively. The following result due to Kiefer and Wolfowitz (1960) established the equivalence of D and G-optimal approximate designs and provided a way of verifying whether a given design is D-optimal: .. I -~, \ "' t" 3 Theorem 1: (Equivalence Theorem). The following conditions are equivalent. (i) IM-1 I • min IM-1(t)I E; (ii) max d(x;(D) a min max d(x;t) X ; X (iii) max d(x;~D) mp. X The set of all designs satisfying these conditions is convex and the corresponding information matrices are identical. In the next section we provide analogous equivalences for situations in which x is a vector, x • (x1 ,x2), and the values of ;_ to be included in the experiment are~ at the experimenter1s control. 4 2. Marginally Restricted D-Optimal Designs Let x m (x1,x2) and let ~(x) ·m ;(x1 ,x2) denote an arbitrary design on X m x1 x x2• We consider only designs for which IM(t)I; O. Let ;i, iml,2, denote the marginal design ~i(xi): ..( d~(xl,x2) j , i ; j m 1, 2 • Since the values of xl to be included in the experiment are not subject * to control, we assume that they specify a ma_rginal design ; 1 , say, which places * mass at points of a finite collection s1 • * * Following Fedorov (1972), we refer to s1 * as the spectrum of the design ~1. All permissible designs must have ; 1 = ; 1 and we assume that there is at least one permissible design ~ such that IM(;)I; o. Let C • {~1~1 • ;"'} 1 and note that C is convex. The associated family of information matrices, {M(~)l;£C}, has the same properties as the family of all information matrices (cf, Fedorov, 1972, p. 66). In particular, under the assumption that * s1 is finite we may, without loss of generality, restrict C to measures with finite·spectrum. Let·s2 denote the spectrum of ; 2 The design problem is to choose the "best" design from C according to the following definition. ~ Definition 1: The design ; is a marginally restricted D-optimal design if min jM-1(;)1 = IM-1 (€)J • t£C In the case that i,(x1 ,x2) • .z1 (x1) ® !2 (x2), where 0 denotes the Kronecker product, a marginally restricted D-optimal design is easily determined. I .... \ ... 5 Lemma 1: If f (x1 ,x2) = .s,1 (x1 ) @ .s,2 (x2) on D * restricted D-optimal design is equal to ~2 x ~l design for ,s.2 on x2• X = x1 x x2 then a marginally D where ~2 is the D-optimal Proof: The result follows immediately from Hoel (1965). Recall that for any design and, thus, fx d(x1 ,x2; f;) df;(xl'x2) • p max d(x1,x2; ;) ~ p xl,x2 The following lenuna establishes an analogous result for the maximum over the unrestricted margin, x2 • First, for ;EC, let; I (x Ix) • 2 1 2 1 denote the associated conditional design on x2 given x1 ES~: ;211 (x2lx1) = ~(x1 ,x2)/;;(x1) for tt(x1) > O. Lemma 2: For ;&C l max d("i_,x2; f;) df;~(x1) ~ p, X1 x2 Proof: The result follows immediately from the relationship J, d(x1 ,x2; f;) df;211(x21x1) ~max d(x1 ,x2; f;) Xz x2 * for all x1 E s1 . The following theorem presents equivalences for marginally restricted D-optimal designs analogous to those of Theorem 1 for D-optimal designs. Theorem 2: The following conditions are equivalent: (i) IM-1 (i)I = min IM-1(;)1 ~EC r ~ * (ii) Jv max d(x1,x2; ~) d~1 (x1) X1 x2 6 = min [ max d(x1 ,x2 ; t) dt~(x1) ~EC X1 x2 r A * (iii) Jv max d(x1,x2;t) dt 1(x1) ~ P. X1 x2 The set of all designs satisfying these conditions is convex and the corresponding information matrices are identical. Proof: The proof follows along the same lines as that for Theorem 1. Only the main points will be sketched here. We first show that (ii) and (iii) follow from (i). A Let ~ satisfy (i) and let ; denote an arbitrary design in C. Then A A ;a. = (1-a); + a; e: C for all O ~ a ~ 1. Since IM(;) I ~ )M(;) I for all t e:C we must have 0 - log IM(~ >II < 0 • arv - a, -""' a•O Or, after evaluation, Iv r d(~,x2; €> X1 Jx2 * d;2(1 min l.!1-1 (t)I E;EC There is a design ~EC such that ,.. However, since ~ satisfies (ii), and result (i) follows. Other equivalences follow in a similar fashion. As in the case of the equivalence theorem, Theorem 2 establishes equivalences between functionals based on the determinant and the variances of the predicted values, and provides conditions for verifying when a given design 1s the marginally restricted D-optimal design. However, the following necessary condition may be a bit easier to verify in practice. ,.. Corollary 1: Let ~ denote a marginally restricted D-optimal design then Proof: By Theorem 2, v ~ p. Assume v < p, then and, thus, The result follows by contradiction • . ···------- .. ·----- ----- 8 According to this corollary, to verify that a given design is not the marginally restricted design we need consider only the points in s2• Additive models represent an important special case which frequently occurs in practice. If the experimenter can specify that the model is additive and contains a constant term then !. may be written as f'(x1 ,x2) = (1,.&i(x1), ,&2(x2)). The following lennna shows how to construct a marginally restricted D-optimal design in this case. Lennna 3: If !'(x1 ,x2) = (l,.&~ (x1), ,s.2(x2)) then a marginally restricted D * D D-optimal design is ; 2 x ; 1 , where ; 2 is the D-optimal design for (1,,s.2) on x2• Proof: Let ;(xl,x2) • ;l(xl) x t2 3. -1 x2 lx1l d(x el:') dl:' ( I ) l' 2'~ - ~ l'x2,~ ~211 x2 xl _x2 2 Sufficiency follows by letting ; in this expression be a marginally i:-* restricted D-optimal design, integrating both sides with respect to ~1 and then noting that in the resulting expression the left hand side equals p by (iii) of Theorem 2 and the right hand side equals p by construction. To show necessity, choose t £ C such that max d(x1,x2;i) • Jx d(x1 ,x2;~) d~211 (x2 1x1) x2 2 * for all x1 E s1 The result follows by integrating both sides with * respect to t 1 and using (iii) of Theorem 2. * Lemma 4 shows that for any x1 E s1 we must have where x2 ,. * ,. d(x1,x2;;) • d{x1 ,x2;;) A * and x2 are points of support of t 211 - ( d(x1 ,x2; ;) d;211 Cx21x1)J • "i x2 *Jx2* r * * Then d(x1 , x2 ; t) - Jv d(x1, x2; ~)d;211(x21x1) X2 _a_ lnlM(;+1> I a a I > 0 a•O with equality if and only if t is a marginally restricted D-optimal design. ------------ .. ·---- J .( '." . • 13 Proof: From the definition of ~+l' I 1:! * * * * , * * * •.!:!(~)+a tl(xl) [!,(xl,x2) !. (xl, x2) - 1:! I a a -1 ) a Tr M (E:+l * * * *, * * t1 (x1) [.!,(x1, x 2) 1 (x1,x2) * - !! 1 (See, for example, Fedorov, 1972). It follows then that a I •• ** J. * aa ln(M(~+l~ I m ~l(xl) [d(xl, x2; ~) - d(~, x2; ~) d~211 0 a:::10 and by Lemma 4 equality is achieved if and only if ~ is a marginally restricted I>-optimal design. This completes the proof. * * The method of choosing (x1 , x2) and generating ¼-l are the essential ingredients in an iterative scheme to generate a marginally restricted·D-optimal design. The sequence of weights {ai} and the termination criterion can be specified generally as in schemes for generating unrestricted D-optimal designs. See, Fedorov (1972) and Tsay (1976). 14 References Fedorov, V.V. (1972). The Theory of Optimal Experiments. Translated and edited by W.J. Studden and E.M. Klimko. New York. Harville, D. (1974). Nearly optimal allocation of experimental units using observed covariate values. Technometrics 16, 589. Harville, D. (1975). Computing optimum designs for covariance models. In A Survey of Stntistical Design and Linear Models. Edited by J.N. Srivastava. North-Holland. Hoel, P.G. (1965). Minimax designs in two dimensional regression. Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 1097. Kiefer, J. and Wolfowitz (1960), "The equivalence of two extremum problems," The Canadian Journal of Mathematics, 12, 363-366. Tsay, J. (1976). On the sequential construction of D-optimal designs. Journal of the American Statistical Association 71, 671-674. I J