DULUTH BUSINESS INDICATORS 
BUREAU OF BUSINESS 
AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH 
VOL. 12 FEBRUARY 1975 NO. 2 
Index 
200 
• 
• Index change inconsistent 
• Residential building down 
• Employment, unemployment up 
• Grain activity at low level 
• RetaU sales show recovery 
While it is too early in the year to make assumptions of 
the month-to-month behavior of Duluth's economy for 
1975, there was an indication in February that the local 
economy this year may again experience monthly changes 
not consistent with historical patterns of past years. 
In February, the unadjusted business index was 91, up 
four points from January. Normal experience over the past 
1 O years for this two-month comparison suggests a decline 
of about one index point should have occurred. 
Only five of the 15 barometers. making up the index 
recorded January-February changes similar to past changes. 
The balance of the components went either counter to the 
average change or exceeded substantially the rate of change 
usually experienced. It should be noted, however, that Janu-
ary's index was below that of the preceding two Januarys 
so the February increase over January this year may be 
• 
more of a return to normal levels than a net gain in the 
economy. 
The freight carloading index recorded a sizeable in-
180 
160 
140 
120 
100 
80 
0 
JAN. 
DULUTH BUSINESS INDEX 
(1967 = 100) 
(SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED} 
1974 = ---
1975 = ---
F M A M J JULY A s 0 N DEC, 
crease over January attributable in part to the 19% gain 
in the movement of grain, both in and out, by rail. 
Bank debits in February were up 1.8% over January 
which is a sharp contrast to the nearly 16% decline gen-
erally noted in the January-February comparison for recent 
years. Building construction, as measured by the value of 
building permits issued and under construction (in 1967 
dollars) posted a rather substantial gain over January. The 
basic reason for the February rise was the issuance of a 
permit for an industrial building. There were no permits 
issued for residential housing in February, the second time 
since January, 1974 and the fourth time in the last 20 years, 
that no residential housing permits were issued during a 
given month. 
Postal receipts declined in February by a little more 
than normal for this period. Increased production in iron 
and steel firms boosted the use of electric power in the 
commercial and industrial category over January. A sea-
sonal decline plus a mild winter were the basic reasons 
Duluth Business Indicators is compiled and written by Dr. Cecil H. Meyers, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Ooluth, and 
Glenn O. Gronseth, Research Analyst, Duluth, Office, Minnesota Department of Employment Services. Extra copies are avai-lable on request. 
TIME PERIOD 
DULUTH 
INDEX 
February 1975 ..... . 
January 1975 ..... . 
January-February Change . 
Normal Seasonal Change 
January to February ..... . 
February 1974 .......... . 
Change, Feb. 1974 to Feb. 1975 ..... . 
Seasonally Adjusted Index February 1974 
··············+ 
..+ 
91 
87 
4 
1 
86 
Seasonally Adjusted Index February 1975 ............... . 
5 
90 
96 
Work Force ...... . 
Unemployment ...... . 
February 
1975 
..... 47,800 
3,900 
Rate ························· XXX 
Actual .............................. 8.2% 
Seasonally Adjusted .... 6.8% 
Total Employment ............... .44,000 
Wage & Salary ................ 41,500 
Manufacturing .............. 5,700 
Nonmanufacturing ...... 35,800 
Job Openings Received 
During Month ........................ 467 
Persons Claiming Unemploy-
ment Benefits ........................ 2,901 
Average Weekly Earnings-
Mfg. Only .............................. $160.91 
February 
1974 
47,200 
3,800 
XXX 
8.1% 
6.7% 
43,400 
40,900 
5,700 
35,200 
482 
2,994 
$146.56 
NOTE: Employment totals may not add up due to rounding. 
source: Minnesota Dept, of Employment Services. 
ADJUSTED FOR PRICE CHANGES 
(1967:;:;100) 
3 Yr. Feb. 
Aver. Feb. Feb. 
1972-74 1975 1974 
Total 84 89 92* 
General Merchandise .. 80 89 91 
Apparel Stores 75 74 75 
Grocery Stores ..... 95 93 98* 
Automotive Sales 108 92 101 
*Revised 
1975 1974 
Index Average Year-To-Date (Total) 82.9 87.5 
Adjusted tor price chanses 
% 
Change 
+ 1 
+ 3 
XXX 
XXX 
XXX 
+ 1 
+ 1 
0 
+ 2 
3 
3 
+10 
Feb. '74 to 
Feb. '75 
% 
Change 
3 
2 
1 
5 
9 
% 
Change 
- 5 
",-~·---- -~--
for the greater than average January-February decline this 
winter in the residential cons-umption of electic power. 
A moderate pick-up in the movement of grain was noted 
in February although the February index level was still • 
below the average of the past few years for this month. 
No lake shipping activity for coal, iron ore or import-
export cargo ( except grain) occurred in February which 
is normal for this time of the year due to;. the winter shut-
down of lake shipping. 
Wage and salary employment in Duluth was down by 
280 workers from the January total of 41,700. Factory job 
totals were virtually unchanged from January. In the non-
manufacturing category construction, retail trade and serv-
ice oriented firms experienced seasonal cutbacks in employ-
ment. State metal mining jobs posted a slight gain over 
January - a normal seasonal trend each winter. 
Despite government concerns of a recession, high un-
employment rates and spiraling inflation at the national 
level, which tend to categori:z.e the entire nation's economy 
as distressed, the economy of Duluth actually showed an 
improvement over February of last year. The February 
index of 91 was five points higher than the year previous 
figure. In total, eight of the 15 index barometers posted 
gains over last year. 
It is somewhat paradoxical that in spite of a slight in-
crease in unemployment oveI a year ago - 8.2 % in Feb-
ruary, 1975 compared to 8. 1 % in February, 1974 - the 
number of wage and salary workers increased by 600 
workers in that time span. The increase in jobs was not sub-
stantial enough, however, to offset the combined effects of 
the increase in number of women seeking work, the in- • 
creased number of entrants and re-entrants to the local 
labor force plus the rise that occurred in the number of 
unemployed persons returning to this area who are filing 
for unemployment benefits against other states where they 
were last employed. 
The number of persons working on factory jobs this 
past February dropped by nearly 100 from last year. Tex-
tiles and apparel employment was down and the retrench-
ment nationwide in the automobile and. construction indus-
try was a factor in the over-the-year cutback of 200 work-
ers in the lumber and basic products category. 
The more than 650 increase in jobs over a year ago in 
nonmanufacturing was primarily the result of added hiring 
in transportation and government. Despite the apparent 
strengthening of the job market in February, the job out-
look for the unemployed still . remained discouraging. For 
each job received in the local office of the State Employ-
ment Service in February there were 11 applicants in the 
active application file. One year ago the ratio was 10 to 1. 
Freight carloading activity was down substantially from 
last year due in part to the drop in grain shipment activity 
this year. 
The value of building permits issued this year (in 1967 
dollars) was up appreciably over a year ago as a result 
of a sizeable permit issued for an industrial complex. Altera-
tion and repair work was also up over February, 1974. Last 
year was a poor year for residential building and so far this • 
year this same pattern continues to exist. The bulk of what 
building construction is taking place so far in 197 5 has 
been in the nonresidential category. 
Grain shipments, as has been reported in recent issues, 
continues to lag the year ago level. A basic factor in the 
• 
• 
Duluth • Duluth Hotel-Motel Indicators 
VOLUME V, NUMBER 2, 1975 
Index DULUTH HOTEL-MOTEL INDEX BY SALES MONTH (July 1970 - 100) 
150 
140 
130 
120 
110 
100 
90 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
D I I 
1973 1974 1975 
'--------------------- 108 
~------------------99 
65 
54 
4444 46 kl----'
5
::0° 
125 
115 
127 
151 
114 
95 
Jan. Feb. March May June July Aug. Oct. Dec. 
ANALYSIS 
Duluth Hotel-Motel Index 
January, 1975 Index Higher Than January, 1974 
The tentative January, 1975 Duluth Hotel-Motel Index 
was 65 as compared with the January, 1974 Index of 44 
and January, 1973 Index of 44. The Index measures room 
rental receipts unadjusted for price changes. 
Average Daily Room Rental Receipts per 
Occupied Hotel-Motel Room in the United States 
1974 Receipts Higher Than 1973 
For the United States the 197 4 average daily room 
rental receipts per occupied hotel-motel room were $22.08 
as compared with 1973 receipts of $20.38 and 1972 re-
ceipts of $19.41. The average increase in hotel-motel 
room receipts between 1974 and 1973 was $1.70 or 8.3%. 
The average increase in national room prices in 1972 
over 1971 was $.67 or 3.6% and in 1973 over 1972 was 
$.97 or 5.0% . 
Duluth Hotel-Motel Room Rental Receipts 
January, 1975 Room Rental Receipts Higher Than January, 
1974 
Tentative January, 1975 Duluth Hotel-Motel room rental 
receipts were $285,638 as compared with January, 1974 
room rental receipts of $193,985. 
Average Hotel-Motel Room Occupancy 
Percentages in the United States 
For the United States, 1974 average hotel-motel room 
occupancy was 64.91% as compared with the 1973 oc-
cupancy of 64.17%, 1972 occupancy of 62.42%, and 1971 
occupancy of 59.66%. 
by Richard 0, SlelQff, Professor of Business Administration and Economics, University of Minnesota, Duluth 
Month of publication, MARCH, 1975 
Duluth Hotel-Motel Indicators is publish&d by .the Bureau of Business ond Economic Research as a service for the 
State of Minnesota and mailed with the Dvluth Business Indicators. 
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Minnesota, Duluth, Duluth, Minnesota 55812 
DULUTH HOTEL-MOTE!. INDICATORS-TABLES 
By Richard 0. Sieloff, published by Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Minnesota-Duluth 
Average Hotel-Motel Room U.S. Averoge Duluth Hotel- Duluth Hotel-
Average Hotel-Motel Room U.S. Average 
Duluth Hotel- Duluth Hotel- Occupancy Percentages Rental Receipts Per MONTH YEAR Motel Index Motel Room 
Occupancy Percentages Rental Receipts Pe 
MONTH YEAR Motel Index Motel Room 
Occupied Room in 
July 1970 =-100 Rental Receipts Duluth U.S. 
Occupied Room in July 1970 = 100 Rental Receipts Duluth U.S. Hotels ond Motels 
% % 
Hotels and Motels % % 
-
JAN. 1970 35 $156,493 AUG. 1970 
123 $546,730 
1971 43 192,789 37% 52% $17.78 1971 119 530,906 
93% 65% $19.30 
1972 43 190,706 34 55 19.03 1972 122 541,068 93 68 
19.83 
1973 44 193,314 34 57 19.52 1973 127 565,673 92 70 
20.93 
. 
1974 44 193,985 32 56 20.35 1974 151 670,905 99.9' 73 21.79 
1975 65 285,638 1975 
FEB. 1970 40 $ 160,799 SEPT. 1970 94 $403,475 
1971 51 206,485 44 57 $17.77 1971 90 387,155 
72 62 $ 18.79 
1972 48 197,494 38 57 19.01 1972 101 432,629 
78 64 19.54 
1973 46 185,815 35 60 19.85 1973 95 408,374 
69 66 20.71 
1974 54 218, 187 38 63 21.86 1974 114 
490,717 78 66 22.08 
1975 1975 
MAR 1970 45 $199,966 OCT. 1970 
67 $298,451 
1971 44 196, 148 36 61 $18.29 1971 67 
297,598 51 68 $ 19.91 
1972 48 211,752 37 63 19.36 1972 69 
310,696 52 71 20.43 
1973 50 224,067 37 65 20.32 1973 77 342.287 55 74 
20.64 
1974 59 263,549 42 66 21.54 1974 86 
380,299 56 72 22.97 
1975 1975 
APR. 1970 46 $196,223 NOV. 1970 45 
$191,523 
1971 53 227,065 43 62 $18. 7 3 1971 
49 212,197 39 58 $ 18.96 
1972 55 234,750 43 66 19 .07 1972 
47 206,509 37 60· 19.38 
1973 56 239,521 42 67 20.06 1973 
51 219,026 37 63 
21 .. 04 
1974 59 253, 105 40 68 22.48 1974 64 275, 172 N.A. 
62 22.26 
197!: 1975 
MAY 1970 56 $250,987 
DEC. 1970 28 $122,567 
1971 58 46 62 $18.93 
1971 34 149,230 28 45 
$18. 16 
256,415 1972 38 172,601 31 48 
18.88 
1972 62 277, 107 49 66 19.35 
1973 62 277,211 46 69 20.53 
1973 39 171,432 29 46 
20.36 
1974 74 329,930 49 69 22.87 
1974 51 227,786 N.A. 47 22. 14 
1975 
1975 
AVERAGE TOTAL AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE 
JUNE 1970 87 $376,141 
1971 75 320,512 58 63 $19.26 1970 
63.8 $3,348,185. - - -
1972 97 418,645 75 68 19.53 
1971 66.4 3,481,437. 53.08% 59.66% $18.74 
1973 99 425,022 73 68 20.39 
1972 70.9 3,732,199. 55.08% 62.42% 19.41 
1974 108 464,972 73 70 22.30 
1973 71.8 3,764,839. 52.92% 64. 17% 20.38 
1974 82.4 4,324,565 N.A. 64.91% 22.08 
1975 1975 
JULY 1970 106 $444,830 SOURCES: {1) Survey of Current Business, 
(3) Computer Progro,n by 
1971 114 504,937 90 
61 $1~.95 U. S. Dept. of Commerce Duane Anderson, Dept. of Moth. UMD 
1972 121 538,242 94 
63 19.45 {2) Department of Finance and Records 
1973 115 513,097 
86 65 20.25 City of Duluth 
1974 125 555,958 85 67 22.27 • 1975 * T entatl ve 
• 
Bank Debits 
Postal Receipts 
Electric Power (Commercial-
Industrial) 
State Metal Mining Empl. 
Number of Telephones 
Duluth Nonagricultural Empl. 
Number of Electric Customers 
Coal Receipts 
Iron Ore Shipments 
Other Lake Cargo 
Electric Power (Residential) 
Total Duluth Business Index 
+4% 
+3% 
1+2% 
No Change 
No Change 
No Change 
Duluth Retail Sales Index -5% 
(Adjusted) 
Building Permits (Adj.) a: ·· -· · ··· ;!
Freight Carloadings 
Grain Shipments 
Total Index Down 12% 
Consumer Goods Production Down 9% 
Manufacturing Production Down 13% 
Index 
180 
160 
140 
decrease this year has been the action of grain growers 
to withhold their shipments of grain to the port in hopes of 
a price rise developing this winter. The index of grain 
activity in February was the lowest for that month since 
1967. Data for the last week in February, 1975 indicates 
that available storage space in local grain elevators equalled 
71 % of total capacity compared to 4 7 % for the compar-
able period in February of last year. 
Although retail sales in Duluth ( deflated for price 
changes) did not match their February, 1974 level, none-
theless the index defied the historical average January-
February gain of 1.7% by posting a 15.5% increase for 
this period in 1975. Automotive sales, buoyed up somewhat 
by special sales promotions in February, together with in-
creased sales in general merchandise stores were instru-
mental in boosting the month's sales figures over January. 
For the year-to-date, however, retail sales ( deflated) 
averaged 5% below the same two months of 1974. In com-
parison, the January retail sales index was 7.5% below its 
year previous level. Of the 3 7 stores reporting in the retail 
sales sample, 21 of them recorded increases over the prev-
ious February while 16 stores experienced declines. 
NATIONAL CONDITIONS 
There are now definite signs of an economic recovery on 
the horizon. For example, the U.S. Department of Com-
merce's index of leading indicators has recently turned up-
ward. On its face this change would indicate a rise in eco-
nomic activity could occur during mid-summer. Neverthe-
less, some boldness of vision is required to perceive the 
light at the end of the tunnel when the U.S. Index of Indus-
trial Activity has declined 12 % over last year's perform-
ance (see the table and chart on page 3). However, the 
recent relative stability in prices plus the tax cut .bill signed 
by President Ford combined to suggest times of at least 
moderate recovery ahead. Unfortunately, the problem of 
inflation may be hidden in the recovery package. These 
matters will bear watching in the months ahead. 
U. $. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 
(1967 = 100) 
1971=-
1912= -----
UNADJUSTED 
,20--------------------................... ~-...... -
100 
80 
0 
---· 
JAN. F M A M JULY A 
source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors 
s 0 N DEC. 
3 
4 
INDEX NUMBERS 
(1967 ;:;; 100) 
ORIGINAL DATA 
INDEX CHANGE 
Feb. '74 Jan. '75 
Feb. Jan. Feb. to to 
COMPONENT 1975 1975 1974 Feb. '75 Feb. '75 UNIT Feb, 1975 Jan. 1975 Feb. 1974 
Freight Carloadings 59 47 102 43 + 12 ccars) 6,640 5,263 11,478 
Bank Debits 168 165 113 + 55 + 3 (Dollars ;n 'OOO's) 358,017 350,362 240,073 
Building Permits2 94 76 64 + 30 + 18 (Actual $ Value) 2,432,882 226,833 328,002 
Postal Receipts 158 161 144 + 14 3 (Dollars) 372,000 378,739 340,022 
Number of Telephones 126 126 124 + 2 0 (Units) 88,781 88,779 87,413 
Electric Power (Commercial & Industrial} 125 121 117 + 8 + 4 (K.W,H, ;n '000's) 31,305 30,178 29,326 
Electric Power {Residential) 142 156 142 0 14 (K.W.H, in 'OOO's) 20,652 22,780 20,742 
Number of Electric Customers 102 102 102 0 0 34,167 34,125 34,033 
Grain Shipments 54 45 72 18 + 9 (Bushels in '000's) 15,855 13,287 21,161 
Coal Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 (Short Tons ;n 'OOO's) 0 0 0 
Iron Ore Shipments 0 5 0 0 5 (Gross Tons ;n '0CO's) 0 56 0 
other Lake cargo 0 0 0 0 0 (Short Tons) 0 0 0 
Duluth Nonagricultural Empl, 100 100' 98• + 2 0 
Duluth Retail Sales Index" 89 77 92 3 + 12 
(Persons) 41,500 41,7003 40,9003. 
State Metal Mining Empl. 98 95, 94' + 4 + 3 (Persons) 12,400 12,1003 
OVERALL 91 87• 86 + 5 + 4 
1. Source of data: . . . . . . 
Duluth Industrial Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapohs, Building Inspector's Office of the City of Duluth, u. s. Post 
Office in Duluth, Minnesota Power & Light Company, Duluth Board of Trade, Corps of Engineers, U. S. Armr, Lake Superior 
Area Office, American Iron Ore ~ssociati!)n, !_:ieaway P~rt Authority of Duluth, Minnesota Department of Manpower Services 
and the Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Duluth, 
2 The Building Permits Index is adjusted to reflect the amount oi construction occurring during the month. The original data 
· columns reflect only the value of building permits issued during the month and do not show work in progress. 
3. Revised 
4, Adjusted for price changes. 
11,gooa 
UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA, DULUTH 
DULUTH, MINNESOTA 55812 
NON-PROFIT 
ORGANIZATION 
U. $, POSTAGE 
PAID 
PERMIT NO. 67 
DULUTH, MINN • 
•