Modeling incorrect responses to multiple-choice items with multilinear formula score theory

Abstract

Multilinear formula score theory (Levine, 1984, 1985, 1989a, 1989b) provides powerful methods for addressing important psychological measurement problems. In this paper, a brief review of multilinear formula scoring (MFS) is given, with specific emphasis on estimating option characteristic curves (OCCS). MFS was used to estimate OCCS for the Arithmetic Reasoning subtest of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery. A close match was obtained between empirical proportions of option selection for examinees in 25 ability intervals and the modeled probabilities of option selection. In a second analysis, accurately estimated OCCS were obtained for simulated data. To evaluate the utility of modeling incorrect responses to the Arithmetic Reasoning test, the amounts of statistical information about ability were computed for dichotomous and polychotomous scorings of the items. Consistent with earlier studies, moderate gains in information were obtained for low to slightly above average abilities. Index terms: item response theory, marginal maximum likelihood estimation, maximum likelihood estimation, multilinear formula scoring, option characteristic curves, polychotomous measurement, test information function.