The Art of War(games): Analyzing Assumptions Embedded Within United States - People's Republic of China Wargames

Abstract

This paper examines the critical role of wargaming in forming United States (U.S.) policy and military decision-making in the context of potential conflict between the U.S and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). As abstract representations of conflict, wargames offer a valuable tool for policy-makers to explore various scenarios without real-world consequences of destruction and loss of life. However, the efficacy of these wargames hinges on their design and assumptions. This work argues that current table-top exercises that depict conflict between the U.S. and the PRC often fall short of adequately accounting for key factors, such as the high usage rates of weapons, logistical constraints and the protracted nature of modern conventional warfare. Drawing on historical case studies, like the U.S. Naval War College’s War Plan Orange, the 1961 Berlin Crisis games, as well as analysis of more recent publicly available wargames and the conflict against the Houthis in the Red Sea, this paper highlights the necessity for more realistic and comprehensive wargame design in the future. Ultimately, this research advocates for the development of improved wargaming methods to provide policy-makers with more accurate insights into potential U.S.-PRC conflict, thereby fostering better informed strategic decision-making and hopefully reducing the risk of war.