Lake ice and lake temperature characteristics are all dependent on climate and
morphometric lake characteristics. Simulation results of water temperature and ice
characteristics of ten large lakes in Minnesota (Gao and Stefan, 1997) were used for
multiple linear regressions. Some equations were obtained for predicting lake ice and lake
temperature characteristics from climate parameters, geographic location, lake surface
area and depth.
Some of these regression equations were employed to predict the ice~on dates,
ice~off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thicknesses for several freshwater
lakes in the U.S. and Canada. The predictions were also compared with observed data,
which were assembled by Adams and Stefan (1997).
The results show that the predictions by regression equations were in good
agreement with the observed data. The standard errors between observed and predicted
ice-on dates, ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thicknesses range from 4
to 7 days, 6 to 10 days, 7 to 10 days, and 0.06 to 0.13 m, respectively.
Because the ten lakes used to do the multiple linear regressions are all in
Minnesota, and the lakes used to verify the regression equations are in the northern u.s.
and one in Canada, the regression equations are considered only applicable to lakes in the
northern U.s. and southern Canada.
US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development; Minnesota Department of Natural Resources
Gao, Shaobai; Stefan, Heinz G..
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis for Lake Ice and Lake Temperature Characteristics.
St. Anthony Falls Laboratory.
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