JTLU Volume 3, No. 2 (2010)

Persistent link for this collection

https://hdl.handle.net/11299/170169

Table of Contents:

Land Use-Transportation Modeling with UrbanSim: Experiences and Progress, pp. 1-3

Disaggregate models with aggregate data, pp. 5-37

Modeling hedonic residential rents for land use and transport simulation while considering spatial effects, pp. 39-63

Microsimulating parcel-level land use and activity-based travel, pp. 66-84

Simulation of urban development in the City of Rome, pp. 85-105

Simultaneous modeling of developer behavior and land prices in UrbanSim, pp. 107-127

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Land use-transportation modeling with UrbanSim: Experiences and progress
(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2010) Felsenstein, Daniel; Axhausen, Kay; Waddell, Paul
As an open source and modular software system using highly disaggregated data for dynamic simulation, UrbanSim has been instrumental in making integrated land-use transportation modeling accessible beyond the bespoke models that characterized earlier generations. The UrbanSim model and the collaborative OPUS framework (Open Platform for Urban Simulation) that it has spawned have stimulated much original progress in this field. The object of this thematic issue of the Journal of Transport and Land Use is to report on this work and to illustrate the various ways UrbanSim has been adapted. However, this special issue is more than just a collection of progress reports. A central theme running through all the papers is that integrated land use-transportation modeling in Europe presents a series of challenges and demands not necessarily present in the United States context in which UrbanSim was developed. Thus, while the UrbanSim system can be technically adapted to European studies given the data and resources, the prevailing land-use transportation environment in Europe differs from the United States.
Disaggregate models with aggregate data: Two UrbanSim applications
(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2010) Patterson, Zachary; Kryvobokov, Marko; Marchal, Fabrice; Bierlaire, Michel
UrbanSim has significant data requirements. In particular, it requires disaggregate data (traditionally at the 150 meter by 150 meter gridcell level) for employment, households, and buildings. While such data are not always easily available, most regions have readily available data in a more aggregate form, often at the level of traffic analysis zone (TAZ) or other municipal divisions. This paper describes two UrbanSim applications for the cities of Brussels, Belgium and Lyon, France that adopted different approaches of using aggregate data. In Brussels, aggregate zonal data were disaggregated to the gridcell level. In the Lyon application, the zone was used as the unit of analysis and as such, each zone corresponds to one gridcell. The objectives of this paper are: 1) establish whether an UrbanSim model can be developed using aggregate data; 2) describe two different approaches to using aggregate data with UrbanSim and evaluate; and 3) evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of using aggregate data, as well as the two different approaches described. In doing so, it advances knowledge in the field of transportation and land use modeling by helping modelers evaluate the use of an increasingly popular integrated transportation land use modeling option. Several conclusions flow from this work. First, aggregate data can be used to develop UrbanSim models. Second, only a limited amount of disaggregate information can be drawn from aggregate data. In the context of UrbanSim, this is manifested in models with relatively few variables and dubious simulation results—in other words, while it is possible to develop an UrbanSim application with aggregate data, it should not be used for applied analysis. Finally, the development of such models can be a relatively low-cost exercise to gain familiarity with UrbanSim’s functioning and data requirements. As a result, it can also be seen as an important first step to developing or evaluating UrbanSim for application in a new region.
Modelling hedonic residential rents for land use and transport simulation while considering spatial effects
(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2010) Löchl, Michael; Axhausen, Kay
The application of UrbanSim requires land or real estate price data for the study area. These can be difficult to obtain, particularly when tax assessor data and data from commercial sources are unavailable. The article discusses an alternative method of data acquisition and applies hedonic modeling techniques in order to generate the required data. Many studies have highlighted that ordinary least square (OLS) regression approaches lack the ability to consider spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity, consequently leading to biased and inefficient estimations. Therefore, a comprehensive data set is used for modeling residential asking rents by applying and comparing OLS, spatial autoregressive, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) techniques. The latter technique performed best with regard to model fit, but the issue of correlated coefficients favored a spatial simultaneous autoregressive model. Overall, the article reveals that when housing markets are a particular concern in UrbanSim applications, significant efforts are needed for the price data generation and modeling. The study concludes with further development potentials for UrbanSim.
Microsimulating parcel-level land use and activity-based travel: Development of a prototype application in San Francisco
(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2010) Waddell, Paul; Wang, Liming; Charlton, Billy; Olsen, Aksel
This paper develops a prototype of an integrated microsimulation model system combining land use at a parcel level with activity-based travel in San Francisco, California. The paper describes the motivation for the model system, its design, data development, and preliminary application and testing. The land use model is implemented using UrbanSim and the Open Platform for Urban Simulation (OPUS), using parcels and buildings rather than zones or grid cells as spatial units of analysis. Measures of accessibility are derived from the San Francisco SF-CHAMP activity-based travel model, and the predicted locations of households and business establishments are used to update the micro-level inputs needed for the activity-based travel model. Data used in the model include business establishments linked to parcels over several years, and a panel of parcels that allow modeling of parcel development over time. This paper describes several advances that have not been previously integrated in an operational model system, including the use of parcels and buildings as units of location for consumers and developers of real estate, the use of business establishments to represent economic activity, and the interfacing of this microsimulation land use model with a microsimulation activity-based travel model. Computational performance and development effort were found to be modest, with land use model run times averaging one minute per year on a current desktop computer, and two to three minutes on a current laptop. By contrast, long run times of the travel model suggest that there may be a need to reconsider the level of complexity in the travel model for an integrated land use and transportation model system application to be broadly usable. The land use model is currently in refinement, being used to identify input data and model specification adjustments needed in order to bring it into operational use, which is planned over the next several months.
Simulation of urban development in the City of Rome: Framework, methodology, and problem solving
(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2010) Di Zio, Simone; Montanari, Armando; Staniscia, Barbara
In Italy’s case, the implementation of the UrbanSIM model involved the territory of Rome, including the municipalities of Rome and Fiumicino. The main goal was to build scenarios regarding the future of economic deconcentration. Rome is the largest municipality in Europe, with an inhabited surface area only slightly smaller than that of Greater London and almost double that of the inner Paris suburbs (the Petite Couronne). The spatial distribution of buildings within the municipality is distinctive. Unbuilt areas comprise 73 percent of the territory. These voids are often farmland (paradoxically, Rome is the largest rural municipality in Italy) or areas with high environmental, historic or cultural value. Fiumicino, previously part of the municipality of Rome, became an independent municipality in 1991. Its autonomy, made all the more significant because Fiumicino hosts the international airport, marked the start of an extensive process of economic deconcentration along the route connecting Rome to the airport. In Italy’s case, the implementation of the UrbanSIM model posed several challenges, notably the availability, homogeneity and completeness of data. This paper uses four specific cases (land use, travel times, accessibility, and residential land values) to propose a general methodology to solve problems related to missing or non-homogeneous data. For the land use, we simply combine two different land use data sources, while for accessibility and travel time data, we propose the use of geostatistical methods in order to estimate missing and unavailable data, calculating also the accuracy of the predictions. For the residential land values, which are discrete data, we suggest the use of deterministic interpolation techniques. While it has not yet been possible to implement the calibration stage, some simulation outputs are presented.
Simultaneous modeling of developer behavior and land prices in UrbanSim
(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2010) Felsenstein, Daniel; Ashbel, Eyal
A strong inter-dependence exists between the decision to develop land and the expected returns to be gained from that development. Current practice in UrbanSim modeling treats developer behavior and the emergence of land prices as independent processes. This assumes that land prices are exogenous to the interaction between buyers and sellers—an assumption that is difficult to sustain in urban economics and real estate research. This paper presents an attempt to model the two processes as occurring simultaneously. Using the UrbanSim model for metropolitan Tel Aviv, we compare the results of forecasts for densities (residential and non-residential) and land values for the period 2001–2020. Our results show that simultaneous estimation tends to produce more accentuated outcomes and volatile trends. The validity of these results and the implications of this approach in the wider context of land use modeling are discussed.