Browsing by Subject "Risk"

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The discursive construction of complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) in women's popular health media and medical journals
(2014-01) Branson, Carolina
In this dissertation, I examine how CAM is discursively constructed in four major biomedical journals, The Journal of the American Medical Association, Nature, Science, and The New England Journal of Medicine, and three widely known women's popular health media sites, The Dr. Oz Show, Women's Health magazine, and Prevention magazine, and argue that risk is a major trope in the construction of CAM. In my analysis, I found that medical journals use risk discursively to circumscribe the extent to which CAM is accepted in the mainstream medical community and to reinforce institutional boundaries. In women's popular health media, I found that risk is used discursively to reinforce the importance of conventional beauty standards while also supporting CAM as a valid supplement to conventional medicine by emphasizing how using CAM may enhance or improve health. Finally, I argue that although medical journals use the risk of CAM to validate professional norms, and women's health media conflate health and appearance using CAM, women's popular health media also provide specific examples of resistance against both the construction of the riskiness of CAM by medical journals and the patriarchal discourses that inflect the popular media's coverage of CAM.
The Economics of Perennial Bioenergy Crop Production Under Risk and Uncertainty: Understanding Economic and Policy Incentives
(2015-07) Smith, David
In order to reduce economic and national security risks, U.S. energy policy, in 2005 and 2007, mandated production of renewable biofuels. By 2014, the renewable biofuel industry was consuming approximately one-third of domestic corn and soybean production. To meet this growing demand, conservation and pastureland has been cultivated with corn and soybean, resulting in a reduction in ecosystem services, such as carbon storage, wildlife habitat and water quality. Perennial bioenergy crops (e.g., switchgrass) offer a more sustainable alternative. However, unlike annual crops, farmers and landowners have little experience with perennial bioenergy crop production. Uncertainty in production and prices will impact the supply of these novel crops into an emerging market. Using a stated preference method, I show that agricultural landowners are willing to produce perennial bioenergy crops, given competitive returns, but only on a portion of their land. These results suggest that risk and uncertainty are important considerations in perennial bioenergy crop supply. Next, using a state-contingent approach to choice under uncertainty, I characterize the comparative static effects of government incentives to promote perennial bioenergy crop production. I show that uncertainty can dampen the impact of these incentives and in some cases even decrease perennial bioenergy acreage. Finally, I estimate the magnitude of the relative risks and the fixed cost hurdle using a discrete/continuous structural model. I show that agricultural landowners perceive a relatively high level of risk from perennial bioenergy crop production and are less willing to produce short rotation woody crops than perennial grasses.
Enhancing food defense: risk managers' perceptions, criticality assessments, and a novel method for objectively determining food systems' criticality
(2014-03) Huff
This research focused on evaluating the perceptions of food defense risk management by state officials, evaluating the validity of a criticality assessment created by the National Center for Food Protection and Defense (NCFPD), and developing a new geographic information system (GIS) based criticality assessment method. Specific objectives included: (1) investigating and reporting the history of food and agriculture criticality assessments; (2) conducting a survey to identify state officials' risk perceptions related to food and agriculture criticality; (3) analyzing the data collected by the most widely used criticality assessment method (i.e., Food and Agriculture Systems Criticality Assessment Tool); and, (4) developing a new method to objectively measure food system criticality.
Essays in macroeconomics and finance.
(2009-12) Piazza, Roberto
This thesis proposes two studies that highlight the relevance of financial markets imperfections for aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations and growth. In Part I, I show that financial innovation has increased diversification opportunities and lowered investment costs, but has not reduced the relative cost of active (informed) investment strategies relative to passive (less uninformed) strategies. What are the consequences of this phenomenon? I study an economy with linear production technologies, some more risky than others. Investors can use low quality public information or collect high quality, but costly, private information. Information helps avoiding excessively risky investments. Financial innovation lowers the incentives for private information collection and deteriorates public information: the economy invests more often in excessively risky technologies. This changes the business cycle properties and can reduce welfare by increasing the likelihood of ``liquidation crises". In Part II, I start from the observation that in emerging economies periods of rapid growth and large capital inflows can be followed by sudden stops and financial crises. The chapter, abstracting from business cycles aspects, shows that the process of long run growth can be a key element in accounting for these facts. I study a growth model for a small open economy where decreasing marginal returns to capital appear only after the country has reached a threshold level of development, which is uncertain. Limited enforceability of contracts allows default on international debt. International investors can optimally choose to stop lending when the appearance of decreasing marginal returns slows down the growth of the economy, which then defaults and enters a financial crisis.
Essays on Bank Regulation and Risk
(2021-05) Pandolfo, Jordan
This dissertation consists of three chapters. In Chapter 1, Economics of Banking and Regulation, I provide an overview of the academic literature at the intersection of banking and regulation, as it pertains to content in the following chapter. Chapter 2, Bank Regulation: Capital and Liquidity Requirements, is motivated by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act which introduced a new set of capital and liquidity standards for U.S. commercial banks. Given the novelty of liquidity regulation, less work has focused on the joint role of capital and liquidity requirements in achieving policy objectives, as well as their interaction. To address this, I develop a quantitative general equilibrium model with a heterogeneous banking sector in which banks are subject to endogenous insolvency and liquidity default. Using panel microdata for U.S. commercial banks, I find that the Dodd-Frank Act led to a threefold reduction in bank default rates (from 0.93% to 0.23%) and was welfare improving. Further, I find significant policy interactions exist: capital requirements can reduce both insolvency and liquidity default. Given this feature, most of the welfare gains of the Dodd-Frank Act can be achieved just through the capital requirement component of the reform. I also solve for the jointly optimal policy and find that capital requirements should be increased and liquidity requirements decreased, relative to their Dodd-Frank levels. Chapter 3, Bank Profitability by Line of Business, addresses the feature that many banks are universal in the sense that they operate multiple lines of business (e.g. different lines for retail bank, commercial bank and investment bank activities). Using quarterly FR Y-9C reports, I examine how profitability covaries across business lines for U.S. commercial bank-holding companies (BHCs) over the period 2002-2020. Specifically, I partition bank revenue activity into commercial and investment bank business lines. While revenue line items are quite granular in the regulatory data, key expense categories (such as total compensation for employees) are aggregated at the BHC-level. I develop an empirical method to infer expenses by business line and therefore net income by business line, which is my main metric for profitability. Using this method, I find that commercial bank net income accounts for 55% of the aggregate banking sector net income, and this share has declined over time. In the aggregate, I find that commercial and investment bank net income are positively correlated (0.66). While commercial bank net income is pro-cyclical with the business cycle (0.44), investment bank net income is counter-cyclical (-0.09), suggesting a diversification benefit. Counter to aggregate measures, bank-level measures of net income correlation yield mixed results as to the sign and magnitude over the sampling period.
Guilt-proneness and shame-proneness in homeless children
(2017-08) Ahumada, Sandra
Abstract There is a preponderance of literature on the adaptive functions of guilt- and shame-proneness. As the conceptualization and measurement of these self-conscious emotions has improved, there has been a growing consensus that guilt-proneness serves an adaptive role within interpersonal domains whereas shame-proneness is consistently associated with maladaptive functioning. However, the vast majority of this research has focused on typically developing populations. This is unfortunate because the few studies that have examined maltreated samples suggest that maltreatment increases an individual’s tendency toward negative self-conscious emotions. The current study examined the impact of multiple levels of adversity on guilt- and shame-proneness within a sample of 108, 4- to 7-year-old homeless children. The study first investigated whether cumulative sociodemographic risk, a child’s own personal experience with negative life events, or the negative childhood events of the child’s caregiver influenced children’s likelihood of endorsing guilt or shame. Results showed that children’s guilt-proneness was associated with caregiver’s history of adverse events, childhood maltreatment in particular. The study then examined the predictive profiles of guilt- and shame-proneness with respect to academic, emotional, and social functioning. Guilt-proneness predicted greater academic competence and better emotion regulation while shame-proneness predicted worse academic competence and less emotion regulation. Exploratory analyses suggested that guilt-proneness’ adaptive function and shame-proneness’ detrimental effect was most pronounced at higher adversity levels. Overall, findings highlight the importance of interpersonal experiences in shaping guilt-proneness and suggest that guilt-proneness may serve a protective role for children facing adversity.
The impact of executive function and emotional control and understanding on the behavioral functioning and academic achievement of children living in emergency homeless shelters.
(2012-08) LaFavor, Theresa L.
This study examined the impact of executive function (EF) and emotional control and understanding on the behavioral functioning and academic achievement of 86 homeless children, ages 9 to 11. Executive function skills were assessed using parent report, child's performance on four standard behavioral tasks, and teacher report. Emotional control was assessed using parent report on standard measures of emotion regulation. Emotional understanding was assessed using child performance on a standard measure of affect recognition. Risk and adversity were assessed using parent report on widely used measures of sociodemographic variables, and negative and stressful life events. Indices of behavioral functioning included parent and teacher report of externalizing and internalizing problems. Indices of academic achievement included child's performance on standard measures of mathematical operations and word reading. Results indicate that executive function may be an important marker of academic achievement and behavioral functioning. Performance on executive function tasks predicted academic achievement, and parent reports of internalizing behaviors. Executive function emerged a unique predictor above and beyond children's general intelligence, a key correlate of achievement and behavioral functioning among both low and high risk samples. The effects of risk and adversity, specifically negative and stressful events experienced in the past 12 months, emerged as a unique predictor of achievement and behavioral functioning. Children who experienced more recent negative and stressful life events had lower academic achievement and higher parent reported externalizing and internalizing behaviors. Emotional control emerged as a unique predictor of academic achievement, above and beyond executive function and children's intelligence, suggesting that aspects of emotion regulation are important for academic functioning and success. Implications of these findings are discussed with relation to future intervention and the potential of EF as a focus of intervention.
The Influence of Parenting Stress and Social Support on Parenting Behavior during a Preventative Parenting Education Program for Enhancing School Readiness
(2015-08) Clayton, Kate
The purpose of this study was to examine if parents with increased levels of risk (e.g. increased parenting stress and lower perceived social support) and less developed parenting behaviors prior to the intervention would show more change in key parenting behaviors (e.g. parent knowledge and parent-child language interactions) over the course of the intervention. Forty-seven parent-child dyads participated. Participants were recruited through a larger parent study investigating the overall efficacy of the intervention. All participants were English speaking. The majority of families were living below the poverty line. A quasi-experimental, pretest-posttest within-subjects intervention design was employed to evaluate the extent to which elevated parenting stress levels or low levels of social support moderated either a) increases in parenting knowledge or b) increases in CT for parents who participated in the College Bound Babies parenting education program. Dependent variables included change in frequency of parent-child conversational-turns and change in parenting knowledge. Data were collected using the Language ENvironmental Analysis (LENA) system in the participant's natural home environment and parenting knowledge was measured using the Parenting Knowledge and Practices Questionnaire, a self-report measure. Moderator analyses indicated that elevated levels of parenting stress or lower levels of perceived social support did not moderate change in parent-child language interactions or change in parenting knowledge for participants regardless of baseline levels of parenting knowledge or baseline level of parent-child conversational turns. Directions for future research and implications of non-significant findings are discussed.
Managing risk, managing race: racialized actuarial science in the United States, 1881-1948
(2013-05) Wiggins, Benjamin Alan
This dissertation investigates how insurers and the United States government relied on the supposed neutrality of actuarial science to justify their racially discriminatory policies. It argues that the use of race as a variable in the statistical assessment of risk transformed the nature of racism and, in turn, ushered racial disparities in health, wealth, and incarceration from the nineteenth century into the twentieth. Specifically, it investigates the explicit use of race in the actuarial formulas of insurers such as Prudential, in prison management and parole-hearing risk assessments, and in the underwriting manual used for the mortgage insurance decisions of the Federal Housing Administration. It finds that already by the dawn of the twentieth century, leading actuaries and statisticians knew that the social and environmental conditions concomitant with slavery, genocide, and indentured servitude distributed risk inequitably among races. However, capital was ambivalent about the wrongs of the past and the state viewed itself as responsible more for the welfare of capital than for the welfare of its citizens of color when it entered the insurance game during the New Deal.
Opportunity re-evaluation: how risk dimensions influence post-investment venture capital decisions.
(2010-01) Pavone, Carla
Why do managers embrace some risks while they reject others that appear to be equally risky? This dissertation examines how risk dimensions influence the decision to hold, reinvest in, or terminate investment in companies within a venture capital portfolio. I draw on prototype theory to argue that reinvestment is more likely in portfolio companies that "look like" successful VC-backed firms, while investment termination is more likely for firms that "look like" losing portfolio companies. Financial risk is an equivocal signal because it can indicate a problem or recur by design in the VC-backed portfolio company. Different levels of market, technology and management risk are all central characteristics of portfolio winners or losers. I predict that increasing financial risk will increase the likelihood of both reinvestment and termination compared to holding the investment. However, market, technology and management risk will negatively influence reinvestment. Regarding investment termination, I argue that less controllable risks will be rejected, while firms with more controllable risk will be retained. Therefore, I predict that market risk and technology risk will positively influence termination, while management risk will have no significant effect. The sample is composed of 542 quarterly observations of 57 companies in an early-stage VC firm's portfolio. The independent variables are the VC's financial, market, technology and management risk assessments. Control variables address fund differences, portfolio company characteristics, cognitive biases, and economic context. The analysis uses multinomial time series logit to compare the likelihood of follow-on investment, investment termination, or profitable sale vs. holding the investment. With the exception of technology risk, the hypotheses are supported. I contribute to the management and entrepreneurship literatures by examining the under-researched area of risk-based decisions subsequent to an initial commitment. I also use a novel combination of prototype theory and behavioral decision theory to show how risk can be decomposed into multiple dimensions with differing effects on decision-making. Furthermore, my analysis goes beyond binary decisions to incorporate several discrete choices. Finally, this study breaks new ground by analyzing nonpublic, contemporaneous records of actual VC post-investment risk assessments and decisions.
Parent-child relationships in young homeless families: co-regulation as a predictor of child self-regulation and school adjustment
(2011-08) Herbers, Janette E.
Developing adaptive behaviors are particularly important for children growing up in contexts of risk and adversity. This study examined the role of effective parenting for school success in a high-risk sample of children, focusing on co-regulation experiences with parents in relation to child self-regulation skills. In early childhood, it is largely through experiences of co-regulation within the caregiver-child relationship that children develop self-regulation. These skills are carried forward into other contexts of learning and development, including the school environment. The current thesis examined parent-child relationships among 138 families residing in emergency homeless shelter prior to the children entering kindergarten and first grade. Using observational data and state space grid methodology, I examined the parent-child relationship as a dynamic system with implications for children‟s school success and executive function (a central component of self-regulation). Results indicated that the positive co-regulation experiences were related to executive function capabilities and IQ in the child, which in turn were related to school outcomes. Parent responsiveness in particular was related to positive school outcomes. Person-oriented cluster analyses of individual state space grids revealed distinct types of dyads among the homeless families, highlighting individual differences in dyadic functioning. Findings support theory and earlier findings in developmental and resilience science implicating effective parenting in the acquisition of adaptive skills among children who overcome adversity, in part through processes of co-regulation that shape or scaffold the development of self-regulation and related cognitive skills in young children.
RPV/UAV Surveillance for Transportation Management and Security
(University of Minnesota Center for Transportation Studies, 2008-12) Gebre-Egziabher, Demoz
This report describes the results of an investigation into some of the technical and operational issues associated with using Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) for the application of surveillance in support of transportation infrastructure management and security. As part of this investigation a low-cost, miniature, hand-launched aerial vehicle and supporting ground systems suitable for surveillance of highways and traffic infrastructure were developed. Except for the ground station software, this system was built from off-the-shelf components. The ground station software developed was used to enhance ground station operators' situational awareness and simultaneously allow analysis of the data transmitted from the aerial vehicle. In addition, a key system that was developed was an open-source Guidance, Navigation and Control (GNC) software suite for autonomous operation of small aerial vehicles. The culmination of this work was a series flight tests where the UAS developed was used as a tool to enhance situational awareness over a simulated traffic incident or emergency situation. The test consisted of defining a series of waypoints around the area of the simulated incident and launching the miniature aerial vehicle to autonomously fly from waypoint to waypoint.
Simulated driver performance, error, and acceptance study of a J-turn intersection with 3 levels of signage
(2024-01-08) Morris, Nichole L; Schwieters, Katelyn R; Tian, Disi; Craig, Curtis M; nlmorris@umn.edu; Morris, Nichole L; University of Minnesota HumanFIRST Lab
Thirty-six participants with limited previous experience and knowledge of J-turn intersections participated in a simulation study to examine their acceptance of J-turns and left turning navigational performance at three simulated J-turn intersections in counterbalanced order, each featuring one of three signage levels (minimum, intermediate, and full). Participants navigational path was visualized and scored for error occurrence by 3 raters/coders. Eleven different error types occurred and they were classified as minor, moderate, or major severity errors. Participants provided demographic information, crash history, and acceptance of J-turn intersections (across three scales) before and after driving through the simulated J-turn intersections. The data has been deidentified and is available to provide a better understanding of common errors from drivers who are experiencing J-turn intersections for the first time and the resultant influence that their error experiences have on their acceptance of the novel intersection design.
Social isolation as a predictor of future risk: a longitudinal study.
(2011-08) Hall-Lande, Jennifer Ann
The current study investigates the relationships among self-reported feelings of chronic social isolation, risk, and protective factors. The study sample included 2,516 adolescents and young adults. Participants responded to survey questions regarding relationships, risk behaviors, psychological health, and protective factors. The findings revealed that reported social isolation at Time 1 was associated with an increased risk for social isolation at Time 2. Demographic characteristics were associated with an increased risk of chronic social isolation. Individuals with chronic isolation demonstrated psychological issues such as higher levels of depressive symptoms and lower levels of self-esteem. Dropout and increased screen time were a risk factor for chronically isolated females. Protective factors did not significantly influence the associations between social isolation and risk.
Stormwater Pond Maintenance, and Wetland Management for Phosphorous Retention
(Minnesota Department of Transportation, 2023-06) Janke, Benjamin D.; Natarajan, Poornima; Gulliver, John S.; Finlay, Jacques C.
Reduction in phosphorus is critical because phosphate, a dissolved form of phosphorus, sustains algal and cyanobacteria growth and causes a wide range of water-quality impairments in the ponds and downstream waters including algal blooms, excess floating plants, taste, and odor problems. Many stormwater ponds and wetlands that treat stormwater appear to be less effective than expected or originally intended in phosphorus retention, a key function of these ponds in urban environments. There is evidence that many old ponds are releasing phosphorus from bottom sediments at high rates and likely exporting phosphorus to downstream surface water bodies. A major outcome of this project is a pond Assessment Tool to assess the risk of high phosphorus concentrations in ponds and sediment release of phosphorus. The tool is based on 20 ponds with detailed water quality and phosphorus release measurements and a meta-analysis of 230 ponds in the Twin Cities metro area. Other outcomes included a working definition of a constructed stormwater pond and a wetland treating stormwater in the framework of water-body regulations, the development of recommendations for stormwater pond maintenance and wetland management, and an update to the sections on the constructed stormwater ponds section of the 2009 Stormwater Maintenance BMP Guide.
Strategy Use and Executive Function in Young Homeless Children
(2016-06) Sapienza, Julianna
The development of executive function (EF) has garnered attention in recent years because of its association with many positive outcomes. Although evidence suggests these skills can be trained, little research has focused on the processes that promote strong EF skills in high-risk children. Study 1 sought to investigate spontaneous self-regulatory strategies in 138 4- to 7-year-old homeless children during an EF task and to understand the relation between verbal and physical strategies, performance on EF tasks, and school outcomes. As hypothesized, results indicated that physical strategy use was significantly related to general EF, and that EF mediated the relation between physical strategy use and academic achievement and peer competence at school. Study 2 sought to investigate whether similar strategies can be trained and are related to performance on a delay task. 106 4- to 7- year-old homeless children were randomly assigned to training and control groups, and performance on two delay tasks was examined. As expected, children in the training group displayed significantly more strategies on the training task than did children in the control group and that these strategies were significantly related to task performance. However, there were no overall group differences in performance. Exploratory analyses revealed some evidence for a significant relation between training and performance only for older children. Additionally, results demonstrated some transfer of trained strategies to a generalization task, although these were not related to performance. Overall, evidence indicates some potential benefit of training children to use strategies during delay tasks, with implications for interventions aimed at promoting EF development and long-term school success.

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