Larry Jacobs: >> Good
morning. Want to come on in?

We got to have a great
conversation here.

We've been looking
over the data,

and I've got some
very smart people

who are going to
break it down for us.

Come on in. We'll get
started in a minute.

Hey, let's get
started. Very excited

to be with you this morning,

talk about last night

and the coming days
and maybe weeks.

I'm Larry Jacobs.
I'm a professor at

the University of Minnesota

in the Humphrey School
of Public Affairs.

This is part of an
ongoing series of

conversations that we've been

having about the
election all year long.

They've covered a whole range of

topics from Black
Lives Matter and

the Latino and women
vote to looking

at working class votes.

We've looked at
campaign strategy,

we've looked at policy issues.

This feels like a culmination.

What happened and why?

I want to let you know that we

are eager for you to join us.

It's part of our
tradition that we

look for questions
that are challenging.

You may disagree. You
may want other topics.

Please help us get to that.

At the bottom of the screen,

you'll see there's a Q&A button,

and just click in there and
give us some questions,

and we're going to get
to as many as possible.

I want to thank our
guests this morning.

Justin Buoen, who's a
Democratic strategist

, and Vin Weber,

who's been associated with

the Humphrey School for
more than two decades,

former member of Congress in

the Republican Party in
the southwest corner.

And he is now at the Mercury
firm in Washington, DC.

Both Justin and Vin provide
an extraordinary access

to both the national and

Minnesota thinking

within the Democratic
and Republican Parties,

and they have access
to data that we don't.

It's great to have them here.

Thank you very much,
Justin and Vin.

Vin Weber: >> Thank you, Larry.

Justin Buoen: >>
Thanks for having us.

Vin Weber: >> Great to be here.

Larry Jacobs: >> Did
you get some sleep

last night or not?

Justin Buoen: >> I
got very little.

I may be off my game

or sipping my coffee throughout
the morning presentation.

Larry Jacobs: >> We're
going to give you

some hard math problems later.

Justin Buoen: >> I'll
leave those to Vin.

Larry Jacobs: >> Vin,
what happened last night?

We were all built up for

this knock him out
fight. What happened?

Vin Weber: >> Boy,
not a good outcome.

I don't mean in a partisan
sense, we can get to that.

But what we'd all
hoped for, I think,

was after all of this
polarization and turmoil of

the last year and years

that we would have
a decisive win,

a decisive victory,
but the election

would give what election

they're supposed to give,
which is some clarity.

It did not. The news media and

the pollsters were broadly

advertising a big Republican
defeat. That didn't happen.

It was a close election.

We're sitting here, I
expect, by the way,

that Biden will be able to

claim victory by
the end of today,

but that won't even end it

because there'll be court
challenges all over the place,

particularly in Pennsylvania
and probably in Nevada.

It was a closer election than

anybody thought,
anybody expected.

It's not going to go
away for a while.

We're going to be fighting this

out in recounts
and court battles

and finger pointing
at the news media and

the pollsters for a
long time, I'm afraid.

Larry Jacobs: >> Justin, was
this completely unexpected?

Justin Buoen: >> Well, I think

that how close some

of these states were
absolutely unexpected.

If you're looking at it
at the public polling,

I think the Biden team would

have told you that they
thought the race in

Pennsylvania and in Wisconsin

was a lot closer than some
of the polling had said.

It wasn't necessarily
a surprise for them.

If it turns out that

the Vice President
Biden holds Nevada,

wins Michigan where he's ahead,

wins Wisconsin where he's ahead

and either comes really
close or pulls off Georgia,

then from a purely,

electoral college map that

looks in line with
what we were thinking

with a couple of

other places being close that

were within the margin of rare,

North Carolina, for example,

that the Republicans
are going to pull off.

But, absolutely, the polls
in Wisconsin had us up,

8-10 points and some
even more in others,

big wins in Michigan.

It looks like Minnesota
is the one place

that pollsters and
prognosticators were about.

Larry Jacobs: >> I'm
hearing bipartisan

agreement that it was

the Pollsters fault for
raising expectations.

I want to get into
that in a minute.

But first, I want
to re run what I

thought was the narrative
going into the election.

The Democrats had stormed
the early voting,

meaning that they had cast

disproportionate numbers
of mail in ballots,

absentee ballots, and that

the expectation is that when
those ballots were counted,

it would show the
Democrats ahead.

On the other hand, the
Republicans had been steered away

from early voting by the
president repeatedly,

and that we would
see on election day

a surge of Republican support.

What's surprising
about Pennsylvania?

The president's
up 700,000 votes.

There's almost a million
and a half votes

that were cast by mail that
are going to be counted.

They are being counted.

Initially, it looks as
if somewhere around

7-8 out of 10 of

those ballots are going to
be going to the Democrats.

Isn't that what
we expected, Vin?

Vin Weber: >> It's pretty
much what we expected.

I think the Republican surge on

election day met or

exceeded expectations
in a lot of places,

but the Democrat, margins

among the male in voters was
at least what they expected.

It's going about the way we
thought it was going to go,

although by a narrower margin

in most of these states
than we thought.

Maybe if we'd gone back
a couple of years or so

and projected forward,
we could have said,

this is what we thought it
was going to look like,

very close elections
in Pennsylvania,

Michigan, Wisconsin.

But that's not what
people thought

the last month or two
or since the summer.

They thought it was
going to be a blowout in

those states for the
Democrats, and it wasn't.

I believe they'll win certainly
Michigan and Wisconsin.

We'll see about Pennsylvania.

It'll be razor thin either way.

But it was supposed to be not

a close election
in those places.

Larry Jacobs: >> It
was not supposed to

be a close election, instead,

we ended up with a 2016 finish?

Vin Weber: >> You can get
discouraged by all of this,

but as I said,

you'd hoped that the
election would have

established some
clarity to where we are

politically in the
country and given

people some greater
confidence in the system,

even if their side didn't win.

I don't think that
happened. I think that

the disenchantment
and disillusionment

of the American people
with our political system,

which I lament is not going
to go away for a while.

Larry Jacobs: >> Just
one second, Justin, Vin,

when you look at a popular
vote that's going to show

a Joe Biden win of four or
five and possibly six points,

does that look like a
popular mandate that

the president's
leadership has been

rejected by, 5-10
million people?

It looks different
to me than 2016.

It looks like a the sentiment

about the president's
leadership.

Vin Weber: >> Well,
that's certainly

if I were the president,
that's what I'd argue.

But we've had that argument
now for about four years.

People are used to it.

Unless we're going to
challenge the existence of

the electoral college
in the United States

Senate, it doesn't matter.

But it's a good arguing
point for Biden.

If we're going to have we
should talk about this,

the only certainty,
it seems to me for

the next four years is
divided government.

If Biden is the president,

that strengthens his hand
a little bit in trying to

get things done in the
Congress, but not immeasurably.

The geographic distribution of

the vote means that Democrats

are still boot wires

are very concentrated
on the two coasts.

Larry Jacobs: >> I'm sorry,

Justin, you were
about to jump in.

Justin Buoen: >> Well,
I just I was going to

piggyback off on
your comment about

the Republican turnout and
the early vote for Democrats.

I don't know, Vin

has been doing this
for a long time

as well and followed campaigns.

It was the weirdest election
day I've ever experienced,

where there's
basically nobody in

the places that we're

watching going to the
polls and voting.

They had already
cast their votes.

Lines in places like

Farmington in parts of the
17th Congressional District.

Or Democrats usually
don't see lines,

and it felt like we were
twiddling our thumbs.

It was very smooth
in the boiler room,

the war room for the Biden
campaign in Minnesota,

so it was a very
different experience.

I think there's going to be
more of this moving forward.

Democrats are going to
continue to push for

early vote even after
the pandemic is done

trying to bank votes as
much as possible and

then hold on as we head
into election day, I think.

Larry Jacobs: >> But Justin
let me ask you if we end up

with with Joe Biden

having maybe 296
electoral college votes

or somewhere in
that neighborhood,

he has a 10-20
million vote margin.

Isn't that a fairly
decisive win or do you

agree that it's pretty

muddled because of the way
we're going to get there?

Justin Buoen: >> Well, I think
that the president started

the muddling last
night by trying to

declare victory and saying that

they should stop counting votes,

and that was a
political argument

to try to illegitimize Biden.

I think it also was
a acknowledgment by

his team that they
weren't going to pull

this thing off
because at the time,

at least, according to votes
that had been counted,

he looked like he was
in good position.

I think that narrative is
going to continue out there,

and so that will probably
muddle the mandate.

I also agree with
Vin we're going to

probably almost certainly have

a Republican controlled
Senate now, it may be close.

We'll see how close it gets,

depending on what happens with

the runoff or
runoffs in Georgia.

I would think Republicans are

probably favored in January.

They usually do better in

special elections
than Democrats.

But we're going to have
divided government

and the races were a lot
closer than we'd expected.

But, I'll come back to the
original thing I said.

If we end up winning
Michigan, Wisconsin,

and hold Nevada
and Arizona, then,

we flipped three Republican
presidential states.

The White House went through

the Midwest and the blue wall,

as I think many of us predicted

two years ago and
continued to talk about.

I think Democrats
got intrigued by

the idea that we could pick
up a Texas, Florida, Georgia.

But it was back to as you said,

back to the 2016
map, all over again.

Larry Jacobs: >> Vin,
we are looking at,

as you said, a
number of lawsuits.

Now, to file a lawsuit,

you need a case, or it's case

and controversies
is the term of art.

What is the case for
legally counting ballots?

There's no doubt as
far as I can tell,

legal terms, there are

ballots in Wisconsin
that have to be counted.

There are ballots in Michigan
that have to be counted.

There is some
discrepancy around,

when to count so

called late arriving
ballots in Pennsylvania,

but we do know that the
Secretary of State says there's

1.4 million uncounted
legally cast ballots.

Is that a legal issue?

Just count the ballots
that meet the rules?

Vin Weber: >> I don't

know exactly what the
legal case is going to be,

but I can guarantee you
they're going to find one.

Not that they're
going to win it,

but they're going to find one.

Elections are complicated
matters of necessity,

and you're always able to find

some thing that looks irregular
and make a case for that.

As I said, I don't assume
that you win that case,

but I think that there's
going to be arguments that

ballots were not
properly submitted.

The local elected
officials didn't

properly count them or

didn't properly screen
them, if you will,

and we saw that

if you go back to the
Florida example in 2000,

we argued about every vote,

and it's in the end,

it was a very close election.

But I think that's what we
have to look forward to.

I don't know exactly what
case is going to be brought,

but I think they're
going to scrutinize

if it's not decisive.

It looks like it
can't be decisive.

Although as I said, I expect
Biden will be able to

claim victory certainly
by the end of today.

If it's not a decisive win,

they're going to find all
ways to challenge it.

Larry Jacobs: >> Justin, what
do you see the legal case

that concerns you the most?

Is it assessed the day after?

Justin Buoen: >>
I think that yes,

they're going to file lawsuits,

absolutely because
they're hopeful

that they can change the result.

But I see this these
legal challenges

almost as a political argument.

They need to try

to muddy the water on
the election results,

so they need to show
the Republican base

that they're fighting
for every vote.

There's lots of
Republicans that think in

Trump's base that feel like
this was an unfair election,

and I think that he's

been sowing those
seeds for a long time.

I think that the
legal challenges

are not going to be
successful legally,

but the goal is a political
one as much as a legal one.

Vin Weber: >> That's true. But
it's even deeper than that,

I think on the Republican side,

Justin, because the Republicans,

particularly the strong
Trump supporters

believe that the Democrats spent

the last four years
trying to delegitimize

his entire presidency through

the impeachment process
and other things.

They're going to try to

delegitimize the
Biden presidency.

At a legal constitutional level,

that's not going to work.

But in terms of
the confidence of

the country in our
institutions, it may work.

Justin Buoen: >> I agree
with that, absolutely.

That is absolutely what the
plan is or the play is here.

Larry Jacobs: >> Vin, if you
were in the Trump campaign,

would you have advised
the president to

make the statement
he made last night?

Vin Weber: >> No.

I would advise the president to

look as presidential as he can.

he's capable of that.

He's capable of showing

discipline when he
thinks it's important.

But he needs to look like

the president now and
try to legitimize

these challenges that we've
talked about that go forward

and not give more credence
to Justin's apt observation,

that this is all political.

I think it is all political,

but you don't want
the country to

believe that you're doing
it only politically.

He needs to act
presidentially during

this process if
he's going to have

any chance at all of prevailing.

Larry Jacobs: Justin
made, as you said,

the argument that the court
case have to go forward

as just a political matter and
a base maintenance matter.

But when you look at

how the court's likely
to respond to this,

we saw challenges in Texas.

We have seen challenges
that the state,

federal, and Supreme Court

have weighed in
and pushed aside.

Do you think there's
actionable material

here to stop a recount

in Pennsylvania where there

are 1.4 million ballots
that have not been counted?

Vin Weber: No, I don't.

I'm not a legal authority,

so I'm a little hesitant
to predict too much,

but I don't think that
there's going to be

really actionable items that

will actually stop the recount.

To the extent that
I can interpret it,

what the courts
have said so far is

they are going to respect

the state's right to
conduct the elections.

Maybe that'll be unlimited,

but that seems to be

the guidance that came
out of the Supreme Court,

and I think that
that will likely be

the guidance that will
prevail in most places.

But we got a lot of judges,

and some of them have

different attitudes
toward these things,

but it seems to me that

the principle that states
conduct the elections is going

to be given a lot of

credence as we go through
this unfortunate process.

Larry Jacobs: I want to go to
the exit polls, which we had.

I think one of the most
interesting issues

is why did last night happen?

Yes, the Electoral College

is going to be a
complicated issue,

but we did have perhaps

70 or more million folks
vote for Joe Biden.

Why did that happen?

The president came in,

10, 15 million fewer.

One of the questions asked
voters to rank five issues.

The number 1 issue,

Vin was the economy,

35% said the economy
was a number 1 issue.

If you had told me that
before the election,

I might have thought
that the president

would have done pretty well,

particularly given
the good news of

late and the sense that
there's a recovery going on.

Things are not where
they were in January.

Vin Weber: Well, I think

he should have done
well on that issue,

but I do think that Biden,
at the end of the day,

the Democrats were able to

conflate that issue a bit
with the other major issue,

which was the pandemic.

The argument that Biden made,

which is you can't see

the economic recovery
unless you crush

the virus persuaded not
everybody, but a lot of people.

I think that took away from

the president the
advantage you would think

that he might have given

the good economic news of
just the last few days,

the 33% increase in
GDP last quarter.

Those things should be

very strong talking points
for an incumbent president,

but the pandemic was
effectively utilized by

the Biden folks as a counter to

that issue to a
substantial extent.

Larry Jacobs: Justin, we've
got these issues here,

but then we've got judgments
about the president,

and both moderates and

independents broke
decidedly for Joe Biden.

Was that based on the
issues or character?

Justin Buoen: I
think probably both,

and it probably had
a lot to do with

President Trump, as well.

When you're running
for reelection,

it's often about the view

of the incumbent
party candidate.

I think that obviously
was to Biden's advantage.

Back to your other point,

question about the economy
for the president,

I think that the Biden campaign

effectively tied the economy

to the coronavirus,
as been pointed out.

Also, I think the president did

himself a disservice
down the home stretch,

not talking enough
about the economy.

He got way down into blaming
healthcare professionals for

COVID numbers and spent a
day and a half talking about

that and gave the Biden team

something a very
strong talking point.

I think that he hurt himself on

the economy as well in
the final 48 hours.

Larry Jacobs: Then one of
the things that comes out in

the exit polls is
that the suburbs,

which used to be friendly
to Republicans are

now basically a parody
between the parties.

Do you think that's
a long-term thing,

or is that just a Trump thing?

Vin Weber: It's
undetermined, Larry.

I think it's certainly
in the short term,

it's a Trump thing.

It's not terribly surprising.

The suburbs reacted against

a president that
they didn't like.

It's not necessarily clear that

the basic values of
suburbanites, political values,

economic values are
substantially different than

they were five years
ago or 10 years ago,

maybe a little, but not a lot.

The reality for the Democrats
is going to be that

they no longer are going to have

Trump to blame for everything.

As we know, the
midterm elections

usually go against the party
that holds the White House.

That's an opportunity for

Republicans to come back in
some of these suburban areas.

But there has been a
shift in the country.

The suburbs are no longer
Republican strongholds.

There are very few rural areas

where Democrats are even
competitive anymore.

We've seen that change.

The problem for Republicans

is we are increasingly
an urban country.

We have traded suburban
communities for

rural strongholds
that used to be

Democratic and are not
Democratic anymore.

It's not an even trade.

Larry Jacobs: Justin,
I'm going to ask you

about campaign strategy,

and I'll admit that I was
skeptical earlier this year

when I was asking you about
the Democratic Biden strategy

of suspending their
door-to-door work because of

the coronavirus in favor of

more digital and other
distance approaches.

Yet, I see in the exit polls,

so I'm going to need a little
bit of crow here that among

those who voted for
the first time,

they broke about two
to one for Joe Biden.

Do you think the
distance approach

that Biden used was effective?

Justin Buoen: Well, I think
it sure looks like it.

We're going to see massive
turnout from base Democrats in

our base areas Hennepin
County here in Minnesota,

the Detroit and Detroit suburbs.

I think we got big turnout.

I don't know how much of
that was Biden campaign,

how much that was Donald
Trump, all of the above.

I think when we get
past the coronavirus,

we're going to go
back to the way

we've done campaigns with
the door-to-door efforts.

But we're going to be able
to layer this new tool on

the digital and texting side,

which I think was
very effective.

I think I got over
the final 72 hours

probably half a dozen
phone calls and

text messages and emails
about getting out to vote.

Larry Jacobs: Hey,
Vin, the Republicans

ran uninterrupted
door-to-door operation.

In Florida, what they
did in Dade County was

almost textbook and
running doing very well.

My sense is it may have
flipped Florida from being

a toss-up or maybe
even a Biden state

into going into the
president's column.

Do you think the
Republican strategy

this time around
in terms of how it

campaign made this race

closer than what the
pollsters were expecting?

Vin Weber: I think
the Republicans, I

think they had the
right strategy.

I think a strong ground
game is in their interests,

and I think it helped
the Republicans.

I think it particularly
helped them in Florida.

Florida does not look like

the swing state we've
always thought it was.

It doesn't look deep red,

but it looks to me like
a Republican state.

I think other states
are swing states

now Arizona seems to have
flipped the other way.

But let me say one other thing

related to this and we can

go back to your previous
question, Larry.

I think that Biden's
strategy of basically laying

low for a long time was helpful

to him to the extent
that he got out,

he looked friendly,

approachable, presidential,
non-threatening.

Trump was Trump. He would go

around and scare people
all over the place.

However, Biden got
much more aggressive

in his campaign in
the last 10 days,

and I don't think it helped him.

I know Biden a little bit,

and I'd see him out there.

Every time I saw him,
he looked angry.

I don't think that
served him well.

In fact, I think in the
final days of the campaign,

he probably hurt himself a bit.

Maybe it would have been
a larger margin for him,

but he didn't look
like a friendly,

non-threatening guy out there

when he was in the
attack on Trump.

Now, you can say,

well, look at Trump.

Trump was attacking constantly.

I'm not arguing that Biden
did anything unfair.

I'm just saying I don't
think it helped him to

get out of this
unfair comparison,

but to get out of the
basement and onto the attack.

People didn't want to vote
for a slasher against Trump.

He looked a little
bit like that just

the last week or so of
the campaign, in my view.

Larry Jacobs: Justin, I'm going
to ask you about the timeline,

looking ahead in terms of
the presidential election.

According to federal law,

the states need to resolve
their vote counts and

the disputes around
them by December 8th.

Then the electors in

the Electoral College
meet December 23rd.

Do you have any
concern about having

270 electoral college votes in

the Biden column by that
point, those dates?

Justin Buoen: No. We talked about
the lawsuits at the outset.

I don't think that there's
any legitimate lawsuits

that they're going
to win and that

it's a political argument.

I don't foresee if we hold on

to these states' issues there.

Larry Jacobs: Then I'm asking
this question because there's

so many scenarios Um.
You go on the Internet.

There are many, I just
want to see if we can save

people a lot of time
from searching for them.

Do you think we're going
to have resolution by

the December 8th date that

the states are supposed to have

their vote tallies submitted?

Vin Weber: Yes, I do. I think

the road from here to

December 8th is going to
appear to be very rocky,

a lot of screaming and
shouting and hollering,

a lot of filing of motions
and things like that.

But I think that we're
going to resolve it.

I have a basic confidence in

the court system that they
will understand that it's

necessary to come to
closure on this and not

disrupt that December 8th
date that you talked about.

That's a hope on my part.
But I also think it's true.

I think the judiciary
understands that it

plays a significant role here,

and they will not want to be

the determinants
of this election.

Larry Jacobs: There are lots
of great questions here,

and I'm bringing
some in, but Justin,

let me ask you one, which was,

what happened with
Latino support

for Donald Trump last night?

Was it a deciding factor in

Florida that the warnings about

Latinos not breaking for

Biden sufficiently was
the reason he lost?

Justin Buoen: Well, I
think in different states,

the vote went for

Biden and Trump in
different directions.

One of the warning
signals that I've been

hearing from Biden
campaign for some time

was that we weren't
doing as well with

Latinos voters in Florida
as Secretary Clinton did.

It clearly showed that we lost

a margin there in

the Cuban American, Venezuelan
American community.

Sounds like in Florida,

some of the socialism attacks on

Biden have worked or did work.

Biden looks like
he did better in

some swing suburban
places in Florida,

but didn't drive up the
margins in Miami-Dade County.

Now, the contrast to that is

the Mexican American community
in Arizona went very

heavily towards Joe
Biden and helped

put him over the top in Arizona.

Looks like the same in Nevada.

I think it depends on the
state and the messaging.

Republicans in Florida have
done a very good job of

reaching out to and building

relationships with
those communities.

The governor and

the Florida Republican
Party have invested

heavily time and resources
into support there,

and that made a big difference.

Larry Jacobs: Vin, you
were mentioning that

the expected
down-ballot pressure

of Donald Trump as a
drag didn't play out.

I'm just curious.

I noticed in Maine that

only about three-quarters of
the vote had been counted.

Now, Susan Collins is a lead.

It looks comfortable
at this point,

but is it possible

that there are
going to be some of

these states like Maine?

I think North Carolina
is a harder one to

imagine where
you're going to see

the Democrat move
forward as these

mail-in ballots would tend to

favor the Democrats are counted.

Justin Buoen: I
don't think that's

going to be a
significant factor.

I think the Republicans
are going to

control the Senate probably with

the loss of a couple
of seats but still

maintain control of the Senate.

I think Maine is an interesting
case, and I have to say,

Susan Collins accomplished what

most people couldn't accomplish,

which was to successfully

separate herself from
the president enough

to win in a state where
the president was not

popular without
losing her own base,

which did support the president.

A lot of candidates

around the country
would try to do that,

but would not be
effective at it.

She proved that she is a
really good politician.

That was a good candidate.
Those things matter.

But most places in the country,

I don't think that's going
to work but I just don't see

where we're going
to flip seats that

the Republicans are counting on

today that would flip
the Democratic side.

I think it's going to be
a Republican Senate and

I think the Republicans
are going to gain

about 10 seats in the
House of Representatives,

which also by the way,

defies some earlier predictions

that said we're going to
have the great blue wave,

and the Democrats are
going to increase

their margins in the
House Representatives.

That didn't happen. Now we'll

see what the final account is.

We got the number of
seats in California that

haven't been decided but I think

Republicans are going to
gain about 10 seats in

the House of Representatives
and if Biden is president,

that matters a lot because he's

got to look then at a midterm
election two years later,

in which I would say it would be

likely the House
would go Republican.

Divided government is going
to be our reality for

the next four years and the
fact that the Republicans

and Democrats have not been
able to work together on

virtually anything for
the last four years

ought to cause all
of us some concern.

Larry Jacobs: Justin, what
happened to the blue wave?

Justin Buoen: I think we're
going to remain to be seen.

It looks to me like
Democrats turned

out in cities and suburbs,

and we won those house races

in the states where
we had Senate races,

that margin was
enough to put us over

the top and
Republicans picked up

swing ex-urban and suburban
districts in the US House.

I think Republicans
outperformed in a lot

of their areas from
what pollsters and

Democrats had predicted and

I also think the
Democratic base turned

out higher than a lot of
folks had predicted as well.

To Vin's point, it's
a mixed result.

Larry Jacobs: But does it surprise
you that Joe Biden would win

decisively in Maine
and then down ballots,

Susan Collins would
appear to be hanging on?

Justin Buoen: Yeah,
Susan Collins won

her senate seat last time
by I think 30 points.

If she wins by three
points or five points,

you can see how something
like that could happen.

Vin Weber: I'm just going
to come back. Susan Collins

proved that she is
a unique character.

Most Republicans
in that position

could not have accomplished

what she would
have accomplished.

They would have been swept away.

Justin Buoen: Look,

how many Northeastern
Republicans are left, Vin?

Susan is immobile in that sense.

Larry Jacobs: I want to ask you,

we got a question here, Vin.

As a Republican, the constant
predicting that Trump would

lose by a landslide sure
felt like an effort by

the media to suppress or

discourage Republican
turnout. Do you agree?

Vin Weber: I resist
conspiracy theories,

and I also resist media bashing,

but I'm not going to
dismiss that question.

You look at the relentless
negative media coverage

of Trump for four years,

but particularly the last
few weeks and the pollsters,

we can get into that, as well.

I'm not going to

allege conspiracy because
I think it's hard to

coordinate something
like this and

not have everybody
know about it but I do

think the media deserves

a lot of scrutiny for their
coverage of this campaign,

and all the polling

should be scrutinized
as well because it had

an effect and it looks to

the average person like it
was an orchestrated effort.

Again, as I said, I don't
believe in conspiracies.

I think it's too hard to keep

a secret but I do think that the

cumulative effect
of the news media

and not just the
left-wing news media,

but respected agents
of the media,

ABC, CBS, NBC, the New York
Times, Washington Post.

I read the New
York Times and the

Washington Post every day.

They may as well put

a disclaimer at the
bottom paid for by

the Democratic
National Committee

and I know these reporters
and I respect them,

but that's what it
looks like to me.

Larry Jacobs: Do you
think Donald Trump almost

incited that partly by his,

just constant lying
and deceptions?

You can make an argument but to

bald-faced lie to a reporter who

knows something
about the matters,

doesn't it create an
environment in which the media

is on guard against that
kind of a president?

Vin Weber: Well, he
created an adversarial

relationship with the press.

There's no question about that,

and you vilified
him in unfair ways,

calling him the
enemy of the people.

That's all unacceptable, and

a very human reaction on
the part of reporters

and producers in the media

was hostility to the president.

Still, you have
professional obligations as

a journalist regardless of how

contemptuous you are of the
person you're covering.

I think that a lot of people
in the journalistic world

did not follow their
journalistic responsibilities.

I think that they
went over the top.

I understand how they
feel about the president,

and I can understand
why they feel

that way about him but still

their job is not to be an
advocate for the other side,

I think a lot of them
went into that mode.

Larry Jacobs: Justin,
in the 19th century,

there was something
called the Partisan Press

and each party tended to have

its organs that
would speak for it.

I don't necessarily
buy into the idea

of some of the press being
the Democratic Party's organ

but when you look at
Fox News or you look

at and read some of the
conservative radio shows,

some of which I've been on,

does that strike you
as fair and balanced?

Justin Buoen: Well, I
think that depending on

the program on these stations,

there are agendas, absolutely.

I come from a journalism family,

and so I strongly
believe that we need to

have a fair and free press,

and I think that they
should be calling balls and

strikes and not
putting their fingers

on the scale for one
side or the other.

I think that there is
still a lot of that,

and question about how

they should be reporting polling

data and polling results,

maybe they should characterize
them differently,

that this is just a snapshot

or this is just a prediction and

not make people think that

it's a likely or
guaranteed outcome.

Some of that has
to do with the way

that media has changed, as well.

There's an
entertainment factor to

media that the cable
news shows play on,

which is different
than 20 years ago.

Larry Jacobs: But just to
give you a couple of examples

of maybe what Vin
is referring to.

The president struck a deal

in the Middle East
that's historic.

It could be a game changer
in the Middle East,

so we're not thinking civil war

and death and destruction,

we think in the Middle East.

As far as I could tell,
there was about six hours of

appropriate positive
coverage of it

versus when Bill Clinton pulled

off the Peace Agreement
or Jimmy Carter,

there were weeks of adulation

or the economic news that
came out a few days ago,

it felt like half a news cycle.

Are those examples of a bias?

Justin Buoen: I don't know if
those are examples of bias or

the way the media has
changed in 20 years.

The coverage on
presidents paying

$750 in taxes felt like it was

around for one news cycle

before we got to the
next thing, as well.

Things are moving much quicker

than they've ever moved before,

and I think that goes back to

my point about there's a lot

of entertainment news as well,

and folks want clicks

and they want to keep
viewers engaged.

Vin Weber: One thing
I just want to say,

you will not like this,

but we just have
too much polling.

I'm not suggesting we
should regulate it or

ban it or anything like
that but I'm saying,

it used to be you'd wait
for weeks between polls

and you'd try to think the

next one's coming out
this coming Sunday,

we'll see what's changed
in the last month or so.

You and I both know we all get

daily updates of
all the new polls.

It's just too much of it.

Again, I'm not suggesting we
should try to regulate it.

I think the media
should be a lot more

careful about how much of
this stuff they're reporting.

Justin Buoen: Anybody can
call themselves a pollster.

Larry Jacobs: I want to
just add a footnote here,

which is, I've done a lot
of research on polling.

I've done a lot of
polling myself but one of

the projects I did
with a colleague

at Columbia, Bob Shapiro,

is we went into the
archives and we found

evidence that Louis
Harris had changed

his numbers in
response to pressure

from the Nixon White House,
particularly through Colson.

I think it's a pretty
open-and-shut case.

It won awards and
so forth and it got

me a pretty hostile phone
message from Louis Harris,

which was all fun
but I think one of

the responses to that by
me and others is to say,

let's not have just
two pollsters.

Let's have a group.
Then why don't we

average them and then Smarty
Pants, like Nate Silver,

comes along and says, we're
going to average them,

but we're going to
grade them in terms

of how accurate they are.

I'm not defending polling

because I'm as
frustrated as anyone.

Vin Weber: You are.

Larry Jacobs: Well, I'm
putting it in context

but I think polling
did terrible.

Last night was just
not a good run.

We're going to do a
program on this in

a couple of weeks with some
of the best pollsters,

and I'm going to do my best
to get them all angry.

Hey, Justin, I want to ask you,

with regards to the US House,

here's Biden winning and then,

at least so far,

and things will probably change,

it looks as if the
Republicans did pretty

well in the US
House race flipping

seats and stopping
the Democrats from

flipping their targeted
seats. What happened?

Justin Buoen: I think we
had good Republican turnout

in a number of places.

I think we had some seats

that would probably have been in

Democrat's hands
longer than they

should have that we
ended up losing,

like the seventh Congressional

District here in Minnesota with

Collin Peterson and I
think that in general,

Republicans did some good work.

Again, we don't know
exactly the final numbers.

A number of these
seats are still out,

so we'll see how many
they actually end

up picking up at
the end of the day

but the good news for

Democrats is that Nancy Pelosi

is going to continue
to be a speaker.

Vin Weber: One more
thing. Candidates do

matter and the Republicans

recruited good candidates
for the House this time.

Michelle Fischbach
is a good example.

No disrespect to my
friend Collin Peterson,

but he had not run against

somebody of that
caliber in the past.

Michelle's a former president
of the state Senate,

former lieutenant governor,
a really good candidate.

We have good candidates
around the country.

Aagain, the quality of the
candidate does matter,

and I think it enabled
Republicans to win back

some seats that the Democrats
were renting, if you will.

And I think it'll be about

a 10-seat gain for
the Republicans.

The House is structured in
such a way that Nancy will

still be able to hold
an iron grip over it

but a lot of her
members are going to

feel a little more

pressed because they
aren't going to

be able to defect on any issue.

They won't have a
big enough margin.

Larry Jacobs: Vin, you'll

note that there was
rumors going around that

Tom Emmer was about to
be axed as the head of

the House Republican
reelection committee.

He looks pretty good today.

Vin Weber: I think he
looks very good. I think

Tom is a good candidate

and a good chairman of the NRCC.

He would, of course,
like to have won

the House but if Biden is
going to win the presidency,

which I think we all agree
is likely to happen,

he can argue strongly that

to gain a significant
number of seats in

the House of Representatives
while the party is losing

the presidency is a pretty
substantial accomplishment.

I think he had a good night,

and I think he's
proved himself to

be an effective leader.

Larry Jacobs: Let me ask you,
Justin, about campaign finance.

We set another record.

It's around $14
billion this cycle.

What impact does that have?

The fact that Democrats raised

more money usher in Joe Biden,

it didn't seem to
have much impact on

the US Senate and
US House races.

Justin Buoen: I think the only
thing we're certain to have

is more money raised and more
money spent moving forward.

I think these Georgia
special elections

or special election are going

to break all-time
records for spending.

Money is the be-all and
end-all in campaigns.

It's messaging,
it's ground game,

and it's the candidates.

In some of the places
where we really

drove up the
fundraising advantages,

like in South Carolina
with Jaime Harrison,

I think it was
always a long shot

that we're going to beat
Lindsey Graham there,

and the online money
poured in against Graham,

even though that probably
wasn't the best use of money,

same with the McConnell seat.

Vin Weber: I'll bet you we will
not see from President Biden

a strong suggestion or

proposal for campaign
finance reform.

The Democrats benefited
from dark money this time.

Larry Jacobs: Do you
think it's time for that?

Do you think there would
be bipartisan support for

putting together in
McCain framework?

Vin Weber: Probably not. I think

that the Constitutional
limitations on what you

can do in terms of regulating

campaign finance make it

unlikely that they could
achieve a bipartisan solution.

Larry Jacobs: Then,
there's been a lot of talk

about the Republican Party
and the direction it's going,

particularly from Democrats
or as you put it,

the Democratic allied media.

The New York Times
editorial page

ran an editorial with
the headline RIP GOP.

>> It talks about it's time for

the Republican Party
as it's currently

constituted to go away,

and I see in the exit polls

that the growing part
of the electorate,

which are the voters of color,

made up 35% of the electorate,

and it broke 72% for Joe Biden.

What do you think of the future
of the Republican Party?

How would you characterize that?

Vin Weber: >> Well, I
think that the future,

the party is not going to
change in the way that

the New York Times
or other people

would like to see it change.

I think that the changes that

Trump has brought to
the Republican Party

are there to stay
for a long time.

It certainly is essential
that Republicans figure out

how to appeal to particularly
the Latino community,

and hopefully, the
Black community,

although that seems
to be much more

difficult task for Republicans.

But I don't write off the
Latino community going forward.

I think that they're

more fluid electorate in

terms of they may
vote Democratic,

but I don't think that
the allegiance to

the Democratic Party is anything

like the allegiance that

the African American community

has to the Democratic Party,

which has been cultivated
for generations.

Republicans can compete there.

But yes, I think Justin's right.

I think the issue of

socialism and things
like that helped them,

particularly in the Cuban
American community.

But there's other issues where

Republicans can
appeal to Hispanic.

The Hispanic community
is very much

a more conservative community

than some other
minority communities.

I think Republicans must
compete for those votes,

and I think that
they will try to.

Larry Jacobs: >> Vin, the
Republican strategist

Brendan Steinhauser was
quoted in a political story.

Referring to the
Republican Party,

he said, 'We're almost
in crisis mode.

The party's base is very white,

it's old, it's rural,

and this is in a country
that's becoming younger,

more diverse, more urban.

Everything is working against
Republicans right now."

Vin Weber: >> That's
true for a while.

We'll see if it remains true.

I don't want to get
cynical about this,

but there's no problem
that the Republicans face

that an unpopular president

Biden couldn't solve for them.

[LAUGHTER] I don't say

that with any disrespect
to Biden at all.

I think he's a fine person.

Maybe he'll be a hugely
successful president,

but I'm not so sure.

We thought the country
was transforming itself

in significant ways when Barack
Obama was first elected,

and two years later,
they lose the Congress.

I think that that

anti-incumbent dynamic is
going to help the Republicans.

If you just take a snapshot
of the party today,

everything that guy
said is probably true.

I don't think it's locked
in concrete by any means.

Justin Buoen: >>
Just want to add

just a question on the GOP,

taking it away from the
National perspective and

just looking at
Minnesota for a second.

Since 2006, the Minnesota
Republican Party

has won one out of

27 statewide races in
the state of Minnesota,

so Democrats 26,
Republicans won.

If you want to talk about,

maybe from a national
perspective,

it's not yet RIP for the GOP,

but in Minnesota, that's

absolutely the trend
that we've seen.

Larry Jacobs: >> Justin,

I want to ask you the
flip side of that,

which is we are seeing
regional polarization.

You're absolutely right that

statewide races have fallen in

the Democrat's
favor almost every

election over the last 15 years.

But on the legislative side,

here you had an election last

night in which Joe Biden
won by seven points,

and it looks as if

the Republican majority in

the Minnesota Senate will hold.

There's races out there
still being counted,

so that's not for sure.

It looks as if the DFL
majority in the House,

which strategists hoped would
expand, actually shrank.

Again, we don't know
exactly by how much.

What's going on in
Minnesota that we're

seeing Democrats doing well,

as you said, but then
Republicans doing well?

Justin Buoen: >>
Well, first of all,

I'd rather win the
statewide races.

That's the most important.
Controlling the governorship

in the US Senate is a big deal.

It sounds like a
status quo election

as far as majorities
in the state Senate.

DFL picks up two,

Republicans pick up two.

We added in suburban districts.

They've done better in
greater Minnesota districts.

Looks like probably DFL loses
a couple of house seats,

three of them in Greater
Minnesota for sure,

and maybe a couple
more in the suburbs.

I think it speaks to
the bigger divide

that we're seeing between

city and suburban voters and

more rural voters
and what that means.

Now, it's also going
to be interesting,

as we head into
redistricting if Minnesota

loses a congressional what

the new lines look like and what

these new Senate and

Minnesota state House and

state senate
districts look like,

and how that may shape the
future of the legislature.

Larry Jacobs: >> Are
you concerned by

this midterm backlash against

the president's party
with regards to

Governor Walz's
reelection campaign

in 2022? Is that
a threat to him?

Justin Buoen: >> I think that
one of the best things that

down-ballot Democrats are
going to have going for him

in 2022 is Tim Walz is at
the top of the ticket.

What Walz has been able
to do is reach out to

those voters that don't
always vote for Democrats.

His coalition is very similar

to Amy Klobuchar's coalition.

He's going to do
well in the first.

He does well in
northern Minnesota,

and then we'll juice

the margins in the
Metro again, I think.

Larry Jacobs: >> I was talking
to a Republican consultant

last night who works
on legislative races,

and he was insistent that
Governor Walz's handling of

the coronavirus was one

of the factors that
helped them in

making the case for

Republican legislative
candidates here in Minnesota.

Have you seen evidence of that?

Justin Buoen: >>
That's the argument

that they've been making.

They picked up a
couple of seats,

and so maybe there's
a correlation there,

or maybe it's just that
Trump was able to turn out

Republican voters
that don't always

vote in these
legislative districts.

Vin Weber: >> There's
a real intensity in

Greater Minnesota
against Governor Walz.

He's a gifted political leader,

and Justin may be right
in that he's going to

be an asset to the Democrats
in the midterm elections.

But it's also clear,

where I live in
northern Minnesota or

where I grew up in
southwestern Minnesota,

there's a definite feeling
that the handling of

the pandemic was not

respectful of differences
around the state,

and I think that
he's got a problem.

Justin Buoen: >> Question
will be two years from now is

how the pandemic and the
coronavirus handling,

if that's top of
mind for voters and

where we're at in
that, obviously.

I'll just go back to
again, 26 and one,

I'd put my money on Tim
Walz to win re-election.

Larry Jacobs: >> Justin,
we've lost one of

Minnesota's most senior member

of Congress, Collin Peterson.

What happened up there?

Why did Collin lose?

He's such a dominant figure
in agricultural issues.

Justin Buoen: >> I think
it's a real loss for

Minnesota to lose the
chairman of the Ag committee.

It was a district that was

the most Trump district

in the country that was
held by a Democrat.

I think that Collin ran a
good campaign this time,

but there are fewer
ticket splitters

than we've seen in
previous elections,

and that's what he ran into.

Michelle Fischbach
was a good candidate,

and she ran a strong
campaign as well.

Larry Jacobs: >>
Looking through some of

the close legislative races,

you see the Minnesota
Marijuana Party getting votes.

Justin, is that a threat to DFL?

They're ciphering away.

Justin Buoen: >> Well,
absolutely. It looks like

that a number of these
close legislative races,

the Marijuana Party got 5,

6, 7% of the vote.

It sounds like from what the
Star Tribune has reported

that Republicans have been
recruiting candidates in CD2,

for example, against
Angie Craig,

to run in those positions to

try to siphon off some DFL vote.

It looks like it might
have been successful in

the two Senate pickups
that they had.

There were legalized
marijuana candidates

in both those tickets.

Larry Jacobs: >> There is
talk at the Capitol of

possibly legalizing
marijuana in order to

generate revenue to handle the
huge deficit we're facing.

If that were to
happen, do you think

that would take the steam out of

the Marijuana Party or

do you think it's
around for a while?

Justin Buoen: >> Well, I
think that it would take

away their number one priority,

so it would take some
steam out of it.

That wouldn't necessarily
prevent finding

another third-party entity to
run in these districts with

the threshold being 5% for
the major party status,

that makes a big
difference in Minnesota,

unlike some other states.

Vin Weber: >> If I'm not
mistaken, several states that

legalized marijuana
yesterday through referenda,

I think South Dakota
was one of them,

which indicates that issue
has not lost any appeal,

and if they could
win in South Dakota,

it means that they can appeal

in traditionally
conservative areas.

Larry Jacobs: >> Vin,

I'm going to ask you

about one of the exit polls

here and see what
you think of it.

It shows that about 90% of
Trump supporters and 90% of

Biden supporters
report that they are

concerned or scared if
their opponent is elected.

Does that strike you as

normal in American
presidential elections?

Vin Weber: >> No,
it's not normal,

and it's not good, but

it's true that people
feel that way.

People feel physically
threatened as

a result of the rhetoric

we've seen over the
last few years.

We have to tone
that down somehow,

but it's not going to be easy.

Frankly, both
parties, in my view,

set up this election to be
questioned if they lost.

The president, with

his constant criticism
of mail-in voting,

suggestions of voter fraud,

he convinced his base
that if he lost,

it would have been
a stolen election.

But the Democrats talked about

voter suppression for
the last four years,

and if they lose,
they will claim that

that's an illegitimate outcome.

I don't know how
we get past this,

but somehow we have to get to

the point where people
accept the results of

the election and look forward to

the next one to remedy
any grievances and

don't just carry on the
election for years on end.

Larry Jacobs: >>
Justin, does this worry

you that we've got nine

out of 10 supporters

of each of the
candidates scared or

concerned about the
opponent winning?

Justin Buoen: >> Yeah,
I agree 100% with Vin.

It's not good, and I think
it is the way people feel.

I think that Donald Trump has

thrown some gasoline on

that fire over the
last four years.

I'm hopeful, this
is what Joe Biden

said when he was
running that he was

going to be the president
for all people,

whether they voted
for him or not.

I think that you can bring
down some of the rhetoric,

the president can, by the way

that they talk about things.

If Biden comes out,

I'm hopeful that some
of that gets better,

but this partisan divide is not

going to change whether

Joe Biden wins or Donald
Trump wins again.

We're a divided country.

It's incredibly close
across the board,

and we're a long

way away from people feeling
comfortable on both sides.

Vin Weber: >> A
Republican Senate could,

underline could, be a real
blessing for President Biden.

If the Democrats had
taken everything,

the progressive left of

the Democratic Party
would have considered

it an open invitation to
achieve all of their goals,

starting and end the filibuster,

abolish the Electoral College,

pack the Supreme Court.

All of those things
are going to be off

the table because there's
a Republican Senate,

and it would allow Biden
if he wants to govern,

as Justin pointed out that he
says he's going to govern,

closer to the center and
try to unite the country.

He still has to cope
with his own party.

I leave it to Justin
to tell me how

tolerant the left wing of
the Democratic Party is

going to be of a Biden

who tries to work with

Republicans and
move to the Senate.

Larry Jacobs: >> One of
the big winners last night

was Mitch McConnell who

won decisively in
his reelection bid,

and he's going to
be a key figure.

Do you imagine that
Mitch McConnell

would take that attitude
with regards to Joe Biden?

Vin Weber: >> I think
it's definitely possible.

McConnell is one of

the most effective
legislative leaders

that we've ever seen.

He infuriates the opposition

because he beats the opposition.

But he wants to
accomplish things,

and if Biden wants to
accomplish things,

McConnell is not going to
want to sit back and try to

destroy the Biden
presidency, in my opinion.

He's a partisan. He's
going to want to

see a Republican
elected in four years,

but that doesn't mean
he's going to get up

every morning figuring
how he can destroy Biden.

If Biden will actually try to

compromise on some things,
there's an opening.

It may be a small opening,

but an opening to
do some things.

Larry Jacobs: >> I hope
you're right, but I think

a lot of us remember

Mitch McConnell's comment when

Barack Obama was first elected.

Vin Weber: >> I remember that.

Larry Jacobs: >> He
said his job was to

prevent his re-election.

We have run out of time.

This is another great hour

with Justin Buoen, Vin Weber.

Thank you so much.

You two have been tremendously

generous with your time and

your knowledge all during
this election cycle.

I want to wish you
a Happy New Year,

but I also have a
feeling we may be back

together in not too
distant future.

Vin Weber: >> Probably so.

Larry Jacobs: >> Because
this is going to be

an ongoing struggle
with the election,

and then we're going to
get into a fiery new year.

Thank you both very
much. Appreciate it.

Vin Weber: >> Thanks, Larry.

Justin Buoen: >>
Thanks for hosting us.

Larry Jacobs: >> I want
to just say a quick word

about upcoming events.

Next week, we've got

two extraordinary events
on US foreign policy.

One is with Jake Sullivan,

who's an advisor to Biden,

was an advisor to
Hillary Clinton.

That's Monday coming
up. That's at noon.

Then we've got Richard Haass,

who's the president of the
Council on Foreign Relations,

who will be with us next
week as well on Thursday.

That'll also be at 12:00.

Then later in the month,

we're going to have
Suzanne Mettler,

Professor at Cornell,

talking about her new book on

the Four Threats Facing America.

Thank you very much
for joining us.

I want to let you know that

the recording of this
event will be posted.

There's also going to be a
podcast that you can get

on Apple and Stitcher

and Spotify, so look for that.

These events are free and open.

That's part of our policy,

but they do take resources.

We'd be grateful
if you wanted to

talk with us about
contributions.

You can get in touch with us
on the following addresses.

Thank you very much
for joining us.

Take care, and be well.