[Music]
thank you may much for the invitation
I'm invited to the Institute of
environment and the School of Public
Health so I decided to start to talk
about money you shall always choose a
topic with your audience is not so so
good at you know that's what I found out
so um I was thinking of starting quite
brutally here and looking at
money I picked five countries United
Kingdom United States Sweden Japan and
China and the year is
1800 the size of these bubbles is the
size of the population the Chinese
bubble is there the Japanese is is there
the Swedish United States and on top of
everything United Kingdom this is the
year 1800 we are going to move to 1900
to 2,000 and Beyond and what we are
showing here is GDP per capita how much
money people are earning on average in
these countries and I put it on
logarithmic scale this is the sort of
rubber scale that we use for money
thousand there 10,000 up
there that means means that we have
compressed the incomes of the Rich and
we have sort of stretched the income of
the poorer countries here and it's a sad
fact in 1800 Sweden was on the same
level as Japan and China and and United
Kingdom was on top there and they
couldn't understand the tea party there
in Boston you know why they had left it
why would these guys here you know who
were poor want to leave the crown you
know in in that that won't go well for
them so let's see now what has happened
over these last 200 years I will also
use a projection up to 25 from the
international monetary fund here we go
what happened to these countries you
know did did did they do well we start
Ready Steady go here we go can you see
China is not doing well at all here
Sweden is trying here but it's UK which
is on top United States is trying to get
up here they're soon finding oil here's
oil they're catching up CH is going down
in a revolution and Sweden is trying to
leave Japan back here my ancestors go
away to Minnesota because it's much
better up there you know and they they
try to get up and now you can see United
States is on top here it's the first
world war between the war this was the
recession and United States is now
better it's absolutely on the top of the
world and here Japan come look at the
catchup of Japan and then China is down
here in misery and communism and then
they start their growth and look what is
happening and they are just catching up
there we
are I've also developed a very Advanced
method of economic projection you know
you can go to McKenzie if you want other
projection but I use a very Advanced I
use a stick like
this and I see where China is going and
where is going to hit up there can can
you see there's a little blip I think
but my stick is too short here there's a
little blip on United States can you see
there it's like a little doorstep
falling down it's the Lan Brothers
doorstep you know which went like this
and then it came up again it's
interesting to see that this crisis
which was felt so terribly and which
throwed so many people out in
unemployment was actually on historical
scale quite a small thing the important
thing is not not the length and the size
of the recessions it's the growth in
between that tells you what level you
are living on it's the growth in between
and the interesting thing is that this
was the
trailer this is the feature film it's
called
China it's exactly the same speed by
which they are catching up and for us
it's also interesting to see here that
Sweden actually is the Japan of Europe
Sweden's development is closer to that
of Japan than it is to that of the
United
Kingdom it's a small pineforest area up
in the north so far so no one bothered
to occupy it you know and and and it's
it kept its independence and then it
made it on the back of others so Sweden
actually was that the Danish people say
that Asia starts in malmer they say from
Copenhagen so it's really it's really
it's really quite true and what this
shows us I think is we have had that
idea about the Western World which is so
much ahead and the others will not catch
up and we label Japan Western yes to get
away with the fact of that Japan was
catching up in such a magical way let me
change one of these these
uh accesses here I will change the axis
down here first I take ourself back to
1800
back to 1800 and and I changed this axis
to number of children per
woman and then uh I deselect those
countries uh all this software and this
data set is freely available on the net
you can download it this is where we
were 1800 all countries of the world had
between four children per woman five six
seven large families they had very low
income they were poor with large large
families young couples got many children
and invested a little in each child and
then there was a big risk would they
survive would they not survive and the
world changed in the following way when
I grab it like here you can see some
countries took off they got richer up
there and they got smaller families and
we got the world that
diverged the West took off mainly West
Europe North America look America here
in the top rich with two and a half
child per family in 1930 and then we go
off to after the war and we come here to
about
1960 here 1950 1960 then the world was
as separated as it has ever been and it
ever will be we had really one group of
countries here with large families and
they were poor and the others here they
had small families and they were rich
and then this has changed in such a
tremendously fast way just look at how
family sizes have changed here we go
huh and here we are and which one is
this which country is this one child per
woman it's Hong Kong it's the only part
of China where M did not reach with his
one child family that is the only part
of China that have one child per woman
[Music]
so when we talk about bedrooms don't
think that politician and religious
leader have such a great power bedrooms
is something
different Japan is there South Korea is
there very very small family sizes today
Singapore is there 1.26 you know and and
and you find you find Islamic Republic
of Iran 1.78 children per woman and up
here you find you find uh Ireland is
there Norway is there 1.89 much more
children per woman in Norway than in
Iran and Iran has good data very good
data I am personally know the the
professionals who is gathering this data
now we can go back again and we can look
over to see that many people say you
need economic growth to get small
families let's just compare United
States here with with with China and
India and we go like this can you see
that China and India eventually made it
to small families at much lower income
levels had the countries of the world
sat and waited to reach the same
economic level as West Europe and North
America until they would get two child
families we would really have billions
and billions of more people in this
world they reach small family at the
distinctly lower economic level how was
that possible how was that possible it
was not that they got the same economy
that made them have small families so I
changed the income here to life
expectancy the length of Life the public
health indicator number one yeah down
here short life up here long life and
this is India again and it's China and
it's United States and let me pick let
me pick that was
Ireland uh I think we should have
norways there H let me show you Norway
here as an example of West Europe and
there we
go here you see something different I
stopped at 1972 I was planning in
1968 the year that Paul erish po
published the population bomb what we
saw here then is that while most of the
countries in the world they got small
families at a lower income level but
they had a much better
health are you can you see they had a
health a life expectancy of 60 years and
still had big families so it means that
the sequence of progress in West Europe
and North America and in the rest of the
world is completely
different in in in in in the west with
United States as the engine in the train
it was money first and then it was
health and then it was small
families in the world today it is health
first then small families and then money
because look here when I I I take this
away to show you the general pattern the
general pattern is here that the
separated world in the western world and
the developing World Changed by them
getting healthy first and then small
families and how fast it has
gone India 2.6 children today Bangladesh
1 2.3 children per woman and actually
India with 2.6 is already reproductive
level you know when you have a life
expectance of 65 years 2.5 children is
what's needed to have stable population
over a long
time so we have had an amazing change
polari should be happy because
everything has almost happened but here
we see the problem look here Afghanistan
six and a half children per woman still
today and next to that we find Congo six
children per Woman these are the two
countries that have the fastest
population growth in the world today
Congo and
Afghanistan the poorest countries
suffering most from
conflict that means that leaving
children to
die avoiding to provide vaccination for
children will not stop population growth
that point we passed 50 years ago and
yet the most common critique that Bill
and Melinda Gates Get is if you save the
poor children you destroy the planet
there's no ethical problem with that one
because it's bloody
wrong it's just the failure of school
training and understanding we are not at
that point any longer the countries
which have six children only two dies
four survive and they double in one
generation but they are very few in fact
almost 85% of mankind are living in
countries which are below reproductive
level and and this is this is very
important to understand now what I could
show you here after this is go back once
more and the reason that population grow
was of course that the countries got
healthy and I can do another of my
favorite is that I take income per
person back on this level down here and
this one what I did in the BBC video I
showed that all countries were poor and
sick down here can you see they had
little money and they had short lives
and in the top pair was once more United
Kingdom and their United States trying
to follow you know and and what this
happened it's just to get the the right
pattern of it look the direction that
the United States take and then and then
look at the direction that China takes
here and
and and we would like
to have no I think Sweden Sweden is down
in an embarrassing position
there you can really understand why they
went here to mean see Sweden Sweden was
down there you know and then when we
took off here you can see Sweden never
catched up economically with the United
States but catched up in health and
China is very late to move and then they
move to health first and then this
amazing growth starts
that's where we are today and Sweden can
boast that if you want to be healthy
live in Sweden you want to be rich live
in the United States you know the choice
is
yours it's a little boring has to be
healthy I can admit H
so um let me try to find my way
here this was embarrassing more than 10
years ago Volvo didn't make it don't
laugh that hard you know this is painful
for us this is painful I'm sure that's
an early immigrant from Sweden you know
would laugh like that to us you know but
I will laugh back just wait and see
H we were embarrassed but after all it
was America who bought Volvo and Ford is
a great company so they would made
something great of
it this is how it looked some mon month
back and we said bye-bye Here China
comes Ford sold Volvo to China last year
it was a shock in Sweden it was an
eyeopener at the same time Saab was
acquired by the Netherlands a Dutch
company today sa is going down they've
stopped producing because they can't pay
uh their bills since about 10 days
ago Volvo is hiring they're hiring one
th000 engineers in gothenberg now the
Chinese compan is expanding in Sweden
it's absolutely contrary to what we
thought and it's an eye open and it's
like we can present statistics on
environment you are fighting for that we
can do it on economics we can do it on
health it's when it happens in front of
the eyes of people then we realize that
something has happened the mayor of
gothenberg say I won't go to the States
on holidays and no longer I have to go
to China to understand this is very very
interesting what has happened what has
happened to to to Sweden and this is how
the rest of the world looks
like the n11 not the brick countries the
next to are coming in Vietnam today you
have father and mother and two children
on a motorbike in Mexico you have two
child families is the norm in Mexico
today they're building their home here
in Bangladesh the most common family is
two children like this this is the world
today and I have found it the worst
ignorance we have about population is
the world that we haven't realized that
what we discuss whether it's possible in
the future has already
happened we're already there the
bedrooms are modern the young couples
have what you nicely call Pillow
Talk they make love and they whisper in
each other's ears we shall have two
children we shall buy shoes guitars
football and once our little fames
should go to the beach also this this is
how the world looks like today and and
and
uh how would we how would we uh be able
to understand this this new world I'm
going to show you a new population uh
graph which we have developed here this
is the world in
1960 in 1960 we had children look it's
like a population pyramid we just added
boys and girls on the same size this is
0 to 5 years 5 to 10 and this on look
the population pyramid the world 1960
this is what scared which rightly scared
Paul erish you know and he said we had
three billion people I remember this day
it was my teacher told me we had three
billion people in the world and she said
two billions of them live in the
developing world this was one two
billion you know and 1 billion lived in
the western world and they were
distinctly Richer there was a big gap
between them this was how we acquired
the view of the world the west and the
rest or the west and the development
world we looked at it like this and
population were growing so what happened
since
then since I went to school 1960 this
has happened with world population look
the number of children increased they
increased they
increased you see something happened
there from 1990 to 1995 the number of
children between Z and five
decreased then it was a little a little
increase there and we went on here and
basically what we see happening in front
of our eyes is that the number of births
per year in the world has stopped
growing already the countries with four
to six children for women is compensated
by the huge countries that have less
than two children per woman and United
States is just in the middle neither
contributing that direction or that
direction the number of children growing
have stopped but it while that happened
we became 4 B million more in the world
the world population has doubled during
my lifetime and it's these numbers that
makes us so scared you know and some of
these people they got richer than the
other boxes so why two billions are
there they landed
here and this one got richer and moved
over here and this one acquired
Volvo so more or less like this you have
the world today h and what will happen
in the future what are we about to see
now we have a projection by IMF of 2%
growth by this that will grow from here
to here this one will go from here to
here get ready they will come on top of
you but they won't bypass you United
States is not going backwards West
Europe is not going backwards it's the
others which are catching up and watch
out Institute of environment because
this people their acquisition of more
wealth is a bigger challenge to the
environment than the increase in
numbers and this one we want them to go
from here to here we want them to have
electricity to get a better life
otherwise they will grow they will still
grow with another 1 to two billion
people 2050 we will be like this there's
not much we can do about
it uh we we had a little smaller box
here but this may probably be a little
bigger this is more or less how the
world will be or probably in the future
it will it will come like this it's very
very difficult for this group to realize
that they become integrated in the world
and the world will come above and we see
here what will what will happen in the
future over here can you see but the
important thing is the number of
children doesn't grow it's the number of
middleaged and old people that is
growing and the age group that is really
going to increase from now to 20150 is
US 60 plus the future belongs to
us thank you the whole club supported me
here that it's that's why it's not
possible to avoid the the next two
billions because they are already born
it's forbidden to deny Holocaust and it
should also be forbidden to propose
Holocaust if you say that world
population should stop now you suggest
killing whether you understand it or not
there's no way we have to prepare to be
two billion more in this world and and
and and what will what will that mean
you know what will it mean in in uh in
income distribution let me go here I'll
go up on full screen I will show you
this is the world's income distribution
I've taken away countries now this is
shabier s martinz professor in economics
in Colombia University who has estimated
in the best way possible the income
distribution the size of this pyramid or
this mountain is the people of the world
this is the people who live in less than
$3 a day less than $2 a day this is
hundred a year and these are the rich
people $110,000
$100,000 and I see the billionaires the
Forbes list is over there you
know
somewhere and and and if you look at
this list you can look here you see this
is in
1978 this is urban China and this is
United States of America almost no
overlap almost no overlap there was not
even almost no person in urban China
that was as rich as the poorest 2% in
this
country and this has
happened we have about onethird of US
population today has a counter part in
urban China that earns the same amount
of
money so even if these Hong Kong people
only get one child they increase their
consumption so
enormously so that's why I advise you
don't focus on size of population when
it comes to the environment it's much
more important to see how the
individuals consume goods and use
energy population is not a real issue
for because it's so little we can do
about it less than helping the poorest
billion to get out of poverty and
getting their family sizes down from six
children to two children let me show you
this is the last billion these are women
who carry home water who carry home
firewood they are the Mayflower life the
life that created Thanksgiving that are
striving every day as to put food on the
table this is the L but they are the one
who give birth to six children today
they can't send their children to school
they don't have vaccination yet they
live in the rural areas of the poorest
countries that's where they live not in
the urban slum in the rural areas of the
poorest countries and they love economic
growth this woman told me she love
economic
growth this is economic growth a
wheelbarrow a wheelbarrow is economic
growth because because I let them
increase their income a little here you
can look in between
there she takes Home
Three uh containers of water instead of
one she increased her productivity three
times that's economic growth she used a
wheelbarrow with ball
bearings Industrial Revolution came to
her life this is living without
industrial revolution this is living
with Industrial
Revolution and you can get out of
poverty this is from one of my TED Talks
this woman we did research she's from
Malawi she's bringing her products to
Market and said thank you for the school
the aid organization contributed did
thank you for the mosquito net I have a
healthy child and thank you World Bank
for the infrastructure loan which gave
me the paved Road and thank you
technology that brought the cell phone
to our our village now I know the price
of the products and and I love market
and even more employment I would like to
have a steady work and micro credits
were fine I bought the bicycle with
microc credit and of course I want
security and my human
rights people spend too much time
discussing which of the this she needs
she tells me she wants the whole
set and if you are leftish in Sweden you
know you want school health and
infrastructure it's a s i put it to left
and painted it red there you and if
you're Market liberal you want the blue
stuff there you know technology credits
markets you know and rights you know the
good Society managed to balance
government and market and Civil Society
that's the good Society I have a a
seminar for my students and say those of
you who doesn't like governments you sit
in that corner and discuss Somalia and
those of you who doesn't like Market you
sit in that corner and discuss North
Korea the rest of us sit here in the
room we know how to get out of poverty
we know how that can be done this can be
reached the poorest building can be
reached that's not to we shouldn't spend
too much money on contradicting them we
were discussing today how you could
evaluate Aid you have to realize how
small Aid is it's very
small this is the risk you
see this is what you're studying at the
environmental Institute isn't there
there can be a collapse you know of the
richest
countries and the others can turn out to
be more stable you
know we put it like that Bill and
Melinda gate generously and clever and
smart donate $3 Billion US a year to the
health of the poorest two billion
people how long time does it take for
China to accumulate that in their
Foreign Exchange
Reserve they give 3 billion US dollar a
year it takes Monday Tuesday Wednesday
three
days the cost of the Iraq War in money I
take away the human suffering and the
sacrifices and everything that in money
for taxpayers in the US that's what
China accumulate in only 3
months it's an enormous amount of money
that exist in the world you know this
can be done we can take people out of
poverty you know you can look at the
world here I I I I try to have as my
main message to realize that there is no
three types of two types of countries
any longer there are countries all the
way if you want to draw a line between
the west and the rest the developed and
the developing it's almost impossible
possible it's like a small line can you
see up there it's like a little line in
between but if you look at this line
where you think you have the division
here you find the Czech Republic on one
side and the Slovak Republic on the
other side the world is continuous today
we have to think about it in a
completely different way this graph is
available I have some paper here you can
download it uh it's our default graph
and you should instead think about the
high income countries there the
middle-income countries there the
lowincome countries there you can grasp
that the world has changed and I will
end by telling you what happens on the
15th of November 2008 and I'm going to
to to honor the unit the president of
the United
States because there's there's many
great politicians you know like
Roosevelt and Churchill who decided to
win the war and they won the war you
know but there also these politicians
like gorbachov you know who had all the
power and said communist no good L stop
it the clerk in South Africa said aate
no good L stop it and now I'm going to
honor George W bush seriously and
correctly because he did a thing like
that when he was what this terrible you
have some nasty expression lame duck you
call President how can you say such a
thing about the
president that's what you can tell
royalties you know that they are lame
duck but presidents are
elected what did he do that he had no
money he needed needed money he went for
the pocket there was no money in the
pocket you know he had lowered the taxes
there was absolutely no money and he he
said what should I do he really got a
headache this is called the lman
headache it's a very very severe
headache for a president you know and he
talked with the G7 the G7 used to help
him they looked up to him like this and
they said we have no money Northern rock
you know we have to save Opel we have to
save no no money we can't help you and
then he did what I honor him for he
phoned a socialist Latino Trade union
leader and said president Lula da Silva
does Brazil has any money to lend us yes
we have Lula da Silva said can you come
to Washington and discuss about how we
can help yes I can he said and he came
to Washington and on the 15th of
November the G20 meeting was led by
George W bush here he had realized that
there was a new world can you see him
standing there the headache is gone on
he's standing here he has a Muslim there
he has a communist there he has a
socialist there and he sort of can you
see he sort of leans to the
Socialist it's very interesting you and
he's really happy and this is great this
is really great I'm joking but this is
serious you know it really did this and
it's sort of it's sort of nice because
Lula da Silva is 100% democratically
elected you know so he should lean to
him but he's not the one who has the
money the money has this guy who has the
lowest democracy score in the whole
world Saudi Arabia is lower than than
North Korea and the Chinese communist
leader they have the money and they were
borrowing money but the very fact that
they got together that was good you can
have a fact-based World War this marked
the end of the second world war this
marked the reorganization to the new
world when we have the boxes in a
completely new way we try to help in gap
minder to upgrade your worldview we
picked the name from London Underground
there mind the gap you know and we tell
everyone you know Bush did it you can do
it thank you very
much