This readme.txt file was generated on 20200412 by Jake Ferguson ------------------- GENERAL INFORMATION ------------------- 1. R Code and Data Supporting: Ecological forecasts reveal limitations of common model selection methods: predicting changes in beaver colony densities 2. Author Information Principal Investigator Contact Information Name: Sean M. Johnson-Bice Institution: University of Manitoba Address: Department of Biological Sciences Email: s.johnsonbice@gmail.com ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7538-131X Associate or Co-investigator Contact Information Name: Jake M. Ferguson Institution: University of Hawai`i at Mānoa Address: School of Life Sciences Email: jakeferg@hawaii.edu ORCID: 3. Date of data collection: 1975 - 2002 4. Geographic location of data collection: Northern-half of Minnesota 5. Information about funding sources that supported the collection of the data: NA -------------------------- SHARING/ACCESS INFORMATION -------------------------- 1. Licenses/restrictions placed on the data: Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United States 2. Links to publications that cite or use the data: Johnson-Bice et al. "Ecological forecasts reveal limitations of common model selection methods: predicting changes in beaver colony densities", Accepted for publication in Ecological Applications. 3. Links to other publicly accessible locations of the data: None 4. Links/relationships to ancillary data sets: None 5. Was data derived from another source? Yes, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (beaver survey, hydrography data), PRISM Climate Group (temperature data), U.S. Geological Survey (landcover data), NIDIS (PDSI drought data) 6. Recommended citation for the data: Johnson-Bice, Sean M; Ferguson, Jake M; Erb, John D; Gable, Thomas D; Windels, Steve K. (2020). R Code and Data Supporting: Ecological forecasts reveal limitations of common model selection methods: predicting changes in beaver colony densities. Retrieved from the Data Repository for the University of Minnesota, https://doi.org/10.13020/rwp5-6413. --------------------- DATA & FILE OVERVIEW --------------------- 1. File List A. Filename: Beaver_Data.xlsx Short description: The first tab in this dataset contains the colonly counts for each transect and year. The second tab contains the environmental predictor variables for each route and year. The third tab contains habitat-level predictors of each transect. B. Filename: BeaverModel.R Short description: This code reads in the data files, formats the datasets appropriately, then calls the model that estimates the dynamics of each beaver population in the study. C. Filename: Beavermodel.jags Short description: This file defines the beaver-colony model. 2. Relationship between files: BeaverModel.R loads the data in xlsx, formats the data for analysis, then calls the Beavermodel.jags file to run the model. 3. Additional related data collected that was not included in the current data package: No 4. Are there multiple versions of the dataset? No -------------------------- METHODOLOGICAL INFORMATION -------------------------- 1. Description of methods used for collection/generation of data: For complete methodological details, please refer to Johnson-Bice et al. 2. Methods for processing the data: Raw data are provided. Reformatting for analysis occurs in provided code. 3. Instrument- or software-specific information needed to interpret the data: Scripts were written for Program R and JAGS. Data files can be viewed in any text editor. 4. Standards and calibration information, if appropriate: None 5. Environmental/experimental conditions: None 6. Describe any quality-assurance procedures performed on the data: We have reviewed the code and data for errors. 7. People involved with sample collection, processing, analysis and/or submission: Bill Berg coordinated the annual beaver colony surveys throughout the duration of our study’s timeframe. Numerous pilots and observers were involved in collecting the survey data. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DATA-SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR: Johnson-Bice_Ecol_App_forecasting_beaver_densities_data.xlsx Sheet: ColCounts.csv ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. Number of variables: 8 2. Number of cases/rows: 335 3. Missing data codes: NA 4. Variable List A. Name: rte.name Description: The name of each of the 15 beaver survey routes used in the analysis. B. Name: route.type Description: Refers to the type of route (waterway/transect/mixed). Definitions of each class can be found in the main text. C. Name: year Description: Survey year. D. Name: num.col. Description: The number of colonies counted in that year's survey. E. Name: rte.km. Description: The route's length in kilometers F. Name: col.km. Description: The density of colonies for that year's survey (calculated as: [num.col/rte.km]) G. Name: wolf Description: Whether wolves were 'present', 'absent', or recolonizing (i.e., 'transient') during that survey year. H. Name: wolf_ubi DescriptioN: The estimated density of wolves along that survey route as calculated from the Ungulate Biomass Index (UBI) method described in the main text. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DATA-SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR: Johnson-Bice_Ecol_App_forecasting_beaver_densities_data.xlsx Sheet: EnvVars.csv ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. Number of variables: 32 2. Number of cases/rows: 497 3. Missing data codes: NA 4. Variable List I. Name: rte.name Description: The name of each of the 15 beaver survey routes used in the analysis. J. Name: year Description: Survey year. K. Name:harv.tot Description: The total estimated number of beavers harvested (statewide) for that year. Note that Kabetogama has '0' for each year because no harvest occurred there during the study period. L. Name: pdsi.1 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in January M. Name: pdsi.2 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in February N. Name: pdsi.3 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in March O. Name: pdsi.4 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in April P. Name: pdsi.5 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in May Q. Name: pdsi.6 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in June R. Name: pdsi.7 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in July S. Name: pdsi.8 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in August T. Name: pdsi.9 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in September U. Name: pdsi.10 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in October V. Name: pdsi.11 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in November W. Name: pdsi.12 Description: The average monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) along each route in December X. Name: pdsi.grow: Description: The average PDSI score from the growing season, calculated as the average PDSI value from May (pdsi.5) through September (pdsi.9). Y. Name: pdsi.fall Description: The average PDSI score from the fall season, calculated as the average PDSI value from August (pdsi.8) through October (pdsi.10). Z. Name: pdsi.spring Description: The average PDSI score from the spring, calculated as the average PDSI value from May (pdsi.5) and June (pdsi.6). AA. Name: tmp.1 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of January. AB. Name: tmp.2 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of February. AC. Name: tmp.3 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of March. AD. Name: tmp.4 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of April. AE. Name: tmp.5 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of May. AF. Name: tmp.6 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of June. AG. Name: tmp.7 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of July. AH. Name: tmp.8 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of August. AI. Name: tmp.9 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of September. AJ. Name: tmp.10 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of October. AK. Name: tmp.11 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of November. AL. Name: tmp.12 Description: The average monthly temperature along each route in the month of December. AM. Name: tmax.5: Definition: The average maximum temperature in May for each route. AN. Name: tmp.wint: Definition: The average winter temperature for each year, calculated as the total average from monthly average temperatures from December (of the previous year; tmp.12) through March of the current year (tmp.3). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DATA-SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR: Johnson-Bice_Ecol_App_forecasting_beaver_densities_data.xlsx Sheet: HabVars.csv ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. Number of variables: 9 2. Number of cases/rows: 16 3. Missing data codes: NA 4. Variable List AO. Name: rte.name Definition: The name of each of the 15 beaver survey routes used in the analysis. AP. Name: Deciduous_forest Defintion: The total area (in meters^2) of deciduous forest within the 'forage buffer'. AQ. Name: Mixed_forest Definition: The total area (in meters^2) of mixed forest within the 'forage buffer'. AR. Name: Forage_area Definition: The total area of the forage buffer. AS. Name: Forage_area_km2 Definition: The total forage buffer area in kilometers^2 AT. Name: 1kmbuf_area_km2 Definition: The total habitat buffer area in kilometers^2 (i.e., the area within a 1 km buffer around the route) AU. Name: Pct_decid_mixed_forage Definition: The percentage of the forage buffer that is comprised of deciduous and mixed forest types, calculated as ([Deciduous_forest + Mixed_forest]/Forage_area). AV. Name: relative_forage_avail Definition: The relative abundance of land that is available for beavers to forage (calculated as [Forage_area_km2/1kmbuf_area_km2]). AW. Name: relat_abund_good_forage Definition: The relative abundance of land that is available for beavers to forage that is comprised of high quality forage forest type classes (calculated as [Pct_decid_mixed_forage*relative_forage_avail])