Any proposed traffic management action is essentially a forecast that the action will result in certain
traffic conditions, but uncertainty concerning the amount and distribution of traffic demand will introduce
random error between what is expected and what actually occurs. This report treats the problem of
forecasting whether or not a given set of freeway on-ramp volumes are likely to cause over-capacity
demand at some point in the freeway mainline. The main source of uncertainty in these forecasts concerns
the freeway's origin-destination matrix, and four different methods for estimating this matrix from loop
detector data are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Only the method which explicitly modeled
freeway traffic flow produced reasonably unbiased and efficient estimates, and it was concluded that
successful estimation must be coupled with a good model of freeway traffic flow.
Davis, Gary A..
Dynamic Estimation of Origin-Destination Patterns in Freeways.
Minnesota Department of Transportation.
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