A deterministic, one-dimensional model has been developed and applied which simulates daily water
temperature and dissolved oxygen (D.O.) profiles and associated ice covers and snow covers for dimictic
and polymictic lakes of the temperate zone. The only lake parameters required as model input are surface
area (As), maximum depth (HMAX), and Secchi depth is used as a meaSure of light attenuation and trophic
state. All other lake characteristics required by the model are related to these three parameters. The
relationships used were derived from Minnesota lake data, and hence the model is considered to be a
The model is driven by daily weather data and operates year-round over multiple years (with initial
water temperature and D.O. profiles specified on April 16 of the first year). Because of this specific
feature, the model can be used to simulate the effect of different climate scenarios on lake water quality
characteristics, i.e. water temperatures, D.O. concentrations, stratification, and ice cover characteristics. The
model has been validated with extensive data from lakes in Minnesota and one Wisconsin lake. Standard
errors between simulations and prediction of over 5,000 temperature/D.O. data pairs are I ADe for water
temperature and 1.9 mg/I for D.O.
In this report simulated lake characteristics are reported for past weather conditions, which were
recorded at two stations in Minnesota from 1961 to 1979, and for climate conditions which are projected
to exist if the atmospheric CO2 doubles. The projected changes in climate conditions were obtained from
the output of the Canadian Climate Center Global Circulation Model (CCC GCvl) and the Goddard Institute
of Space Studies at Columbia University (G1SS) GCM. The projected relative changes in climate
parameters due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 were applied to the past (1961-1979) weather record, and
the resulting modified weather data time series were used as input to the lake simulations in order to project
lake temperature and D.O. if the atmospheric CO2 doubles.
US Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Research Laboratory
Stefan, Heinz G.; Fang, Xing.
A Methodology to Estimate Year-Round Effects of Climate Change on Water Temperature, Ice and Dissolved Oxygen Characteristics of Temperate Zone Lakes with Application to Minnesota.
St. Anthony Falls Laboratory.
Retrieved from the University of Minnesota Digital Conservancy,
Content distributed via the University of Minnesota's Digital Conservancy may be subject to additional license and use restrictions applied by the depositor.