This study details the development and application of a method for
estimating economic feasibility of hydropower developments in the state of
Minnesota, along with the associated uncertainty of the estimate. The
uncertainty analysis is performed using input parameter probability
distributions in combination with a Monte-Carlo-type simulation, while
economic feasibility is calculated using an updated version of the hydropower
survey program HYFEAS, developed in a previous study on site-feasibility in
Minnesota. The result of the work is the computer program HYFEAS2,
written to combine the routines of HYFEAS with the uncertainty analysis
developed as part of this study. Additionally, equations have been derived to
take the place of cost estimating techniques used in the previous program,
based upon historical data which has since become available. HYFEAS2 is
applied to 65 potential sites in the state of Minnesota, which were identified
as having good or marginal feasibility by the authors of HYFEAS. Economic
feasibility and the associated uncertainty is reported at four total energy
values, in an effort to estimate the rate which most reasonably allows the
majority of the sites to be developed.
Legislative Commission on Minnesota Resources; Minnesota Department of Administration
Murdock, Robert U.; Gulliver, John S..
Hydropower Feasibility and Uncertainty at Existing Minnesota Dams.
St. Anthony Falls Hydraulic Laboratory.
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